Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.08%
Fair Odds 2.85
Draw
28.11%
Fair Odds 3.56
Away Win
36.81%
Fair Odds 2.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.64% Fair Odds 7.91

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.85 —
Draw 3.56 —
Away Win 2.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.64% 7.91
2 0-1 9.87% 10.13
3 1-0 9.8% 10.21
4 1-2 8.15% 12.27
5 2-1 8.09% 12.36
6 0-0 7.65% 13.07
7 0-2 6.37% 15.7
8 2-0 6.27% 15.95
9 2-2 5.22% 19.17
10 1-3 3.5% 28.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.65%
13.07
9.87%
10.13
6.37%
15.7
2.74%
36.52
0.88%
113.24
0.23%
438.98
1
9.8%
10.21
12.64%
7.91
8.15%
12.27
3.5%
28.53
1.13%
88.46
0.29%
342.94
2
6.27%
15.95
8.09%
12.36
5.22%
19.17
2.24%
44.58
0.72%
138.24
0.19%
535.91
3
2.68%
37.38
3.45%
28.98
2.23%
44.93
0.96%
104.48
0.31%
323.94
0.08%
1256.28
4
0.86%
116.82
1.1%
90.56
0.71%
140.39
0.31%
326.48
0.1%
1012.15
0.03%
3921.57
5
0.22%
456.41
0.28%
353.73
0.18%
548.55
0.08%
1275.51
0.03%
3952.57
0.01%
15384.62
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.42% · Fair: 237.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.65% 13.07
1 19.67% 5.08
2 25.28% 3.96
3 21.65% 4.62
4 13.91% 7.19
5+ 11.84% 8.45
Over 2.5 47.4% Under 2.5 52.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.08%
Draw 28.11%
Away Win 36.81%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.4%
Under 2.5 52.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.32%
No 47.68%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.52% 18.12 10.52% 9.51 83.96% 1.19
-1.5 16.04% 6.24 — 83.96% 1.19
-1.0 16.04% 6.24 20.44% 4.89 63.52% 1.57
-0.5 36.48% 2.74 — 63.52% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.48% 2.74 26.57% 3.76 36.95% 2.71
+0.5 63.05% 1.59 — 36.95% 2.71
+1.0 63.05% 1.59 20.6% 4.85 16.35% 6.12
+1.5 83.65% 1.2 — 16.35% 6.12
+2.0 83.65% 1.2 10.68% 9.36 5.67% 17.65

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.