Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.88%
Fair Odds 2.18
Draw
25.58%
Fair Odds 3.91
Away Win
28.53%
Fair Odds 3.5
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.23% Fair Odds 8.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.18 —
Draw 3.91 —
Away Win 3.5 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.23% 8.9
2 2-1 9.32% 10.73
3 1-0 8.78% 11.4
4 2-0 7.28% 13.73
5 1-2 7.19% 13.91
6 0-1 6.77% 14.78
7 2-2 5.97% 16.76
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 3-1 5.16% 19.38
10 0-2 4.33% 23.09
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
6.77%
14.78
4.33%
23.09
1.85%
54.12
0.59%
169.12
0.15%
660.5
1
8.78%
11.4
11.23%
8.9
7.19%
13.91
3.07%
32.6
0.98%
101.88
0.25%
397.93
2
7.28%
13.73
9.32%
10.73
5.97%
16.76
2.55%
39.28
0.81%
122.74
0.21%
479.39
3
4.03%
24.81
5.16%
19.38
3.3%
30.29
1.41%
70.99
0.45%
221.83
0.12%
866.55
4
1.67%
59.79
2.14%
46.71
1.37%
72.98
0.58%
171.06
0.19%
534.47
0.05%
2087.68
5
0.56%
180.08
0.71%
140.69
0.45%
219.83
0.19%
515.2
0.06%
1610.31
0.02%
6289.31
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.92% · Fair: 108.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.99% 19.01%
1.5 49.42% 50.58%
2.5 23.23% 76.77%
3.5 8.73% 91.27%
4.5 2.71% 97.29%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.88%
Draw 25.58%
Away Win 28.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.47%
No 41.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.26% 9.75 14.03% 7.13 75.72% 1.32
-1.5 24.28% 4.12 — 75.72% 1.32
-1.0 24.28% 4.12 22.05% 4.53 53.66% 1.86
-0.5 46.33% 2.16 — 53.66% 1.86
0 (PK) 46.33% 2.16 24.1% 4.15 29.57% 3.38
+0.5 70.43% 1.42 — 29.57% 3.38
+1.0 70.43% 1.42 17.0% 5.88 12.56% 7.96
+1.5 87.44% 1.14 — 12.56% 7.96
+2.0 87.44% 1.14 8.34% 11.99 4.22% 23.68

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.