Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.09%
Fair Odds 2.49
Draw
27.27%
Fair Odds 3.67
Away Win
32.64%
Fair Odds 3.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.22% Fair Odds 8.19

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.49 —
Draw 3.67 —
Away Win 3.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.22% 8.19
2 1-0 9.54% 10.48
3 2-1 8.67% 11.53
4 0-1 8.6% 11.62
5 1-2 7.82% 12.79
6 2-0 6.78% 14.76
7 0-0 6.72% 14.88
8 2-2 5.55% 18.02
9 0-2 5.51% 18.16
10 3-1 4.11% 24.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.72%
14.88
8.6%
11.62
5.51%
18.16
2.35%
42.57
0.75%
133.03
0.19%
519.75
1
9.54%
10.48
12.22%
8.19
7.82%
12.79
3.34%
29.98
1.07%
93.69
0.27%
365.9
2
6.78%
14.76
8.67%
11.53
5.55%
18.02
2.37%
42.22
0.76%
131.96
0.19%
515.46
3
3.21%
31.18
4.11%
24.36
2.63%
38.06
1.12%
89.21
0.36%
278.78
0.09%
1089.32
4
1.14%
87.83
1.46%
68.62
0.93%
107.22
0.4%
251.32
0.13%
785.55
0.03%
3067.48
5
0.32%
309.31
0.41%
241.6
0.26%
377.5
0.11%
884.96
0.04%
2762.43
0.01%
10752.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.55% · Fair: 182.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.72% 14.88
1 18.15% 5.51
2 24.50% 4.08
3 22.05% 4.54
4 14.88% 6.72
5+ 13.71% 7.29
Over 2.5 50.64% Under 2.5 49.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.09%
Draw 27.27%
Away Win 32.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.64%
Under 2.5 49.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.75%
No 45.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.14% 14.01 11.94% 8.38 80.93% 1.24
-1.5 19.07% 5.24 — 80.93% 1.24
-1.0 19.07% 5.24 21.28% 4.7 59.65% 1.68
-0.5 40.35% 2.48 — 59.65% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.35% 2.48 25.74% 3.88 33.9% 2.95
+0.5 66.1% 1.51 — 33.9% 2.95
+1.0 66.1% 1.51 19.18% 5.21 14.72% 6.79
+1.5 85.28% 1.17 — 14.72% 6.79
+2.0 85.28% 1.17 9.7% 10.31 5.02% 19.9

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.