Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.58%
Fair Odds 2.66
Draw
27.92%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
34.5%
Fair Odds 2.9
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.55% Fair Odds 7.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.66 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 2.9 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.55% 7.97
2 1-0 9.8% 10.2
3 0-1 9.51% 10.52
4 2-1 8.28% 12.07
5 1-2 8.03% 12.45
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 2-0 6.47% 15.45
8 0-2 6.08% 16.44
9 2-2 5.3% 18.87
10 3-1 3.64% 27.44
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.51%
10.52
6.08%
16.44
2.6%
38.52
0.83%
120.38
0.21%
470.15
1
9.8%
10.2
12.55%
7.97
8.03%
12.45
3.43%
29.18
1.1%
91.19
0.28%
356.25
2
6.47%
15.45
8.28%
12.07
5.3%
18.87
2.26%
44.21
0.72%
138.18
0.19%
539.67
3
2.85%
35.12
3.64%
27.44
2.33%
42.87
1.0%
100.49
0.32%
314.07
0.08%
1226.99
4
0.94%
106.44
1.2%
83.15
0.77%
129.92
0.33%
304.51
0.11%
951.47
0.03%
3717.47
5
0.25%
403.23
0.32%
314.96
0.2%
492.13
0.09%
1153.4
0.03%
3610.11
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 223.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.58%
Draw 27.92%
Away Win 34.50%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.91%
No 47.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.99% 16.69 10.98% 9.11 83.03% 1.2
-1.5 16.97% 5.89 — 83.03% 1.2
-1.0 16.97% 5.89 20.78% 4.81 62.26% 1.61
-0.5 37.74% 2.65 — 62.26% 1.61
0 (PK) 37.74% 2.65 26.39% 3.79 35.87% 2.79
+0.5 64.13% 1.56 — 35.87% 2.79
+1.0 64.13% 1.56 20.15% 4.96 15.72% 6.36
+1.5 84.28% 1.19 — 15.72% 6.36
+2.0 84.28% 1.19 10.32% 9.69 5.4% 18.52

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.