Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.06%
Fair Odds 3.22
Draw
29.1%
Fair Odds 3.44
Away Win
39.83%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.01% Fair Odds 7.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.22 —
Draw 3.44 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.01% 7.69
2 0-1 11.61% 8.61
3 1-0 10.16% 9.84
4 0-0 9.07% 11.02
5 1-2 8.32% 12.01
6 0-2 7.43% 13.46
7 2-1 7.28% 13.73
8 2-0 5.69% 17.58
9 2-2 4.66% 21.45
10 1-3 3.55% 28.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.07%
11.02
11.61%
8.61
7.43%
13.46
3.17%
31.54
1.01%
98.55
0.26%
384.91
1
10.16%
9.84
13.01%
7.69
8.32%
12.01
3.55%
28.16
1.14%
88.0
0.29%
343.76
2
5.69%
17.58
7.28%
13.73
4.66%
21.45
1.99%
50.28
0.64%
157.13
0.16%
613.87
3
2.12%
47.08
2.72%
36.78
1.74%
57.47
0.74%
134.68
0.24%
420.88
0.06%
1644.74
4
0.59%
168.12
0.76%
131.35
0.49%
205.25
0.21%
481.0
0.07%
1503.76
0.02%
5882.35
5
0.13%
750.75
0.17%
586.51
0.11%
916.59
0.05%
2145.92
0.01%
6711.41
0.0%
26315.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.31% · Fair: 319.69
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.07% 11.02
1 21.77% 4.59
2 26.13% 3.83
3 20.90% 4.78
4 12.54% 7.97
5+ 9.59% 10.43
Over 2.5 43.03% Under 2.5 56.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.06%
Draw 29.10%
Away Win 39.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.03%
Under 2.5 56.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.64%
No 51.36%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.0% 25.03 8.95% 11.18 87.06% 1.15
-1.5 12.94% 7.73 — 87.06% 1.15
-1.0 12.94% 7.73 19.41% 5.15 67.65% 1.48
-0.5 32.35% 3.09 — 67.65% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.35% 3.09 27.55% 3.63 40.1% 2.49
+0.5 59.9% 1.67 — 40.1% 2.49
+1.0 59.9% 1.67 22.18% 4.51 17.92% 5.58
+1.5 82.08% 1.22 — 17.92% 5.58
+2.0 82.08% 1.22 11.68% 8.56 6.24% 16.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.