Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.91%
Fair Odds 3.46
Draw
29.52%
Fair Odds 3.39
Away Win
41.56%
Fair Odds 2.41
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.08% Fair Odds 7.64

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.46 —
Draw 3.39 —
Away Win 2.41 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.08% 7.64
2 0-1 12.58% 7.95
3 1-0 10.22% 9.78
4 0-0 9.83% 10.18
5 1-2 8.37% 11.94
6 0-2 8.05% 12.42
7 2-1 6.8% 14.7
8 2-0 5.31% 18.82
9 2-2 4.35% 22.97
10 1-3 3.57% 27.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.83%
10.18
12.58%
7.95
8.05%
12.42
3.43%
29.11
1.1%
90.98
0.28%
355.37
1
10.22%
9.78
13.08%
7.64
8.37%
11.94
3.57%
27.99
1.14%
87.48
0.29%
341.76
2
5.31%
18.82
6.8%
14.7
4.35%
22.97
1.86%
53.83
0.59%
168.24
0.15%
657.03
3
1.84%
54.28
2.36%
42.4
1.51%
66.26
0.64%
155.28
0.21%
485.2
0.05%
1893.94
4
0.48%
208.77
0.61%
163.08
0.39%
254.84
0.17%
597.37
0.05%
1865.67
0.01%
7299.27
5
0.1%
1004.02
0.13%
784.31
0.08%
1225.49
0.03%
2873.56
0.01%
9009.01
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.28% · Fair: 358.04
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.83% 10.18
1 22.80% 4.39
2 26.45% 3.78
3 20.45% 4.89
4 11.86% 8.43
5+ 8.61% 11.61
Over 2.5 40.93% Under 2.5 59.07%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.91%
Draw 29.52%
Away Win 41.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.93%
Under 2.5 59.07%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.68%
No 53.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.31% 30.18 8.1% 12.34 88.58% 1.13
-1.5 11.42% 8.76 — 88.58% 1.13
-1.0 11.42% 8.76 18.71% 5.34 69.87% 1.43
-0.5 30.13% 3.32 — 69.87% 1.43
0 (PK) 30.13% 3.32 27.96% 3.58 41.91% 2.39
+0.5 58.09% 1.72 — 41.91% 2.39
+1.0 58.09% 1.72 23.03% 4.34 18.88% 5.3
+1.5 81.12% 1.23 — 18.88% 5.3
+2.0 81.12% 1.23 12.27% 8.15 6.61% 15.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.