Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.96%
Fair Odds 1.92
Draw
23.65%
Fair Odds 4.23
Away Win
24.39%
Fair Odds 4.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.04% Fair Odds 9.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.92 —
Draw 4.23 —
Away Win 4.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.04% 9.96
2 2-1 9.64% 10.38
3 1-0 7.9% 12.65
4 2-0 7.59% 13.18
5 1-2 6.38% 15.69
6 3-1 6.17% 16.21
7 2-2 6.12% 16.34
8 0-1 5.23% 19.12
9 3-0 4.86% 20.59
10 0-0 4.12% 24.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.12%
24.29
5.23%
19.12
3.32%
30.12
1.41%
71.14
0.45%
224.06
0.11%
881.83
1
7.9%
12.65
10.04%
9.96
6.38%
15.69
2.7%
37.05
0.86%
116.7
0.22%
459.56
2
7.59%
13.18
9.64%
10.38
6.12%
16.34
2.59%
38.6
0.82%
121.57
0.21%
478.7
3
4.86%
20.59
6.17%
16.21
3.92%
25.53
1.66%
60.31
0.53%
189.93
0.13%
747.94
4
2.33%
42.89
2.96%
33.78
1.88%
53.19
0.8%
125.64
0.25%
395.73
0.06%
1557.63
5
0.9%
111.71
1.14%
87.96
0.72%
138.52
0.31%
327.23
0.1%
1030.93
0.02%
4065.04
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.58% · Fair: 63.28
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.34% 14.66%
1.5 57.19% 42.81%
2.5 30.17% 69.83%
3.5 12.87% 87.13%
4.5 4.57% 95.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.12% 24.29
1 13.13% 7.61
2 20.95% 4.77
3 22.28% 4.49
4 17.76% 5.63
5+ 21.76% 4.60
Over 2.5 61.8% Under 2.5 38.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.96%
Draw 23.65%
Away Win 24.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.8%
Under 2.5 38.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.37%
No 38.63%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.24% 7.02 15.98% 6.26 69.78% 1.43
-1.5 30.22% 3.31 — 69.78% 1.43
-1.0 30.22% 3.31 22.36% 4.47 47.42% 2.11
-0.5 52.58% 1.9 — 47.42% 2.11
0 (PK) 52.58% 1.9 22.21% 4.5 25.21% 3.97
+0.5 74.79% 1.34 — 25.21% 3.97
+1.0 74.79% 1.34 14.79% 6.76 10.41% 9.6
+1.5 89.58% 1.12 — 10.41% 9.6
+2.0 89.58% 1.12 6.99% 14.31 3.42% 29.2

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.