Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.49%
Fair Odds 2.11
Draw
25.16%
Fair Odds 3.97
Away Win
27.35%
Fair Odds 3.66
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.98% Fair Odds 9.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.11 —
Draw 3.97 —
Away Win 3.66 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.98% 9.1
2 2-1 9.45% 10.59
3 1-0 8.65% 11.56
4 2-0 7.44% 13.44
5 1-2 6.98% 14.34
6 0-1 6.39% 15.66
7 2-2 6.0% 16.67
8 3-1 5.42% 18.46
9 0-0 5.03% 19.89
10 3-0 4.26% 23.45
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
6.39%
15.66
4.06%
24.66
1.72%
58.25
0.55%
183.45
0.14%
722.02
1
8.65%
11.56
10.98%
9.1
6.98%
14.34
2.95%
33.87
0.94%
106.67
0.24%
419.99
2
7.44%
13.44
9.45%
10.59
6.0%
16.67
2.54%
39.38
0.81%
124.02
0.2%
488.28
3
4.26%
23.45
5.42%
18.46
3.44%
29.08
1.46%
68.68
0.46%
216.31
0.12%
851.79
4
1.83%
54.53
2.33%
42.94
1.48%
67.62
0.63%
159.72
0.2%
503.02
0.05%
1980.2
5
0.63%
158.53
0.8%
124.81
0.51%
196.58
0.22%
464.25
0.07%
1461.99
0.02%
5747.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.04% · Fair: 96.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.49%
Draw 25.16%
Away Win 27.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.04%
No 40.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.18% 8.94 14.57% 6.86 74.25% 1.35
-1.5 25.75% 3.88 — 74.25% 1.35
-1.0 25.75% 3.88 22.24% 4.5 52.01% 1.92
-0.5 47.99% 2.08 — 52.01% 1.92
0 (PK) 47.99% 2.08 23.69% 4.22 28.32% 3.53
+0.5 71.68% 1.4 — 28.32% 3.53
+1.0 71.68% 1.4 16.42% 6.09 11.91% 8.4
+1.5 88.09% 1.14 — 11.91% 8.4
+2.0 88.09% 1.14 7.94% 12.59 3.96% 25.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.