Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.68%
Fair Odds 2.24
Draw
26.04%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
29.28%
Fair Odds 3.42
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.52% Fair Odds 8.68

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.24 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 3.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.52% 8.68
2 2-1 9.22% 10.85
3 1-0 9.07% 11.02
4 1-2 7.32% 13.67
5 2-0 7.26% 13.78
6 0-1 7.2% 13.89
7 2-2 5.85% 17.09
8 0-0 5.67% 17.64
9 3-1 4.92% 20.34
10 0-2 4.57% 21.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.67%
17.64
7.2%
13.89
4.57%
21.87
1.94%
51.66
0.61%
162.71
0.16%
640.61
1
9.07%
11.02
11.52%
8.68
7.32%
13.67
3.1%
32.29
0.98%
101.7
0.25%
400.32
2
7.26%
13.78
9.22%
10.85
5.85%
17.09
2.48%
40.36
0.79%
127.11
0.2%
500.5
3
3.87%
25.84
4.92%
20.34
3.12%
32.04
1.32%
75.68
0.42%
238.32
0.11%
938.09
4
1.55%
64.59
1.97%
50.86
1.25%
80.09
0.53%
189.18
0.17%
595.95
0.04%
2347.42
5
0.5%
201.86
0.63%
158.93
0.4%
250.25
0.17%
591.37
0.05%
1862.2
0.01%
7352.94
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.8% · Fair: 124.78
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.67% 17.64
1 16.27% 6.15
2 23.35% 4.28
3 22.34% 4.48
4 16.03% 6.24
5+ 16.34% 6.12
Over 2.5 54.71% Under 2.5 45.29%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.68%
Draw 26.04%
Away Win 29.28%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.71%
Under 2.5 45.29%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.4%
No 42.6%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.49% 10.53 13.61% 7.35 76.9% 1.3
-1.5 23.1% 4.33 — 76.9% 1.3
-1.0 23.1% 4.33 22.0% 4.55 54.9% 1.82
-0.5 45.1% 2.22 — 54.9% 1.82
0 (PK) 45.1% 2.22 24.55% 4.07 30.36% 3.29
+0.5 69.64% 1.44 — 30.36% 3.29
+1.0 69.64% 1.44 17.46% 5.73 12.9% 7.75
+1.5 87.1% 1.15 — 12.9% 7.75
+2.0 87.1% 1.15 8.57% 11.67 4.32% 23.12

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.