Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.78%
Fair Odds 2.39
Draw
26.9%
Fair Odds 3.72
Away Win
31.32%
Fair Odds 3.19
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.02% Fair Odds 8.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.39 —
Draw 3.72 —
Away Win 3.19 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.02% 8.32
2 1-0 9.46% 10.57
3 2-1 8.89% 11.25
4 0-1 8.12% 12.32
5 1-2 7.63% 13.11
6 2-0 7.0% 14.28
7 0-0 6.39% 15.64
8 2-2 5.65% 17.71
9 0-2 5.16% 19.4
10 3-1 4.39% 22.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
8.12%
12.32
5.16%
19.4
2.18%
45.82
0.69%
144.32
0.18%
568.18
1
9.46%
10.57
12.02%
8.32
7.63%
13.11
3.23%
30.96
1.03%
97.51
0.26%
383.88
2
7.0%
14.28
8.89%
11.25
5.65%
17.71
2.39%
41.84
0.76%
131.77
0.19%
518.67
3
3.45%
28.95
4.39%
22.8
2.79%
35.9
1.18%
84.8
0.37%
267.09
0.1%
1051.52
4
1.28%
78.25
1.62%
61.61
1.03%
97.03
0.44%
229.2
0.14%
722.02
0.04%
2840.91
5
0.38%
264.34
0.48%
208.16
0.31%
327.76
0.13%
774.59
0.04%
2439.02
0.01%
9615.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 162.36
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.78%
Draw 26.90%
Away Win 31.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.55%
No 44.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.92% 12.62 12.56% 7.96 79.52% 1.26
-1.5 20.48% 4.88 — 79.52% 1.26
-1.0 20.48% 4.88 21.62% 4.63 57.9% 1.73
-0.5 42.1% 2.38 — 57.9% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.1% 2.38 25.38% 3.94 32.52% 3.08
+0.5 67.48% 1.48 — 32.52% 3.08
+1.0 67.48% 1.48 18.55% 5.39 13.97% 7.16
+1.5 86.03% 1.16 — 13.97% 7.16
+2.0 86.03% 1.16 9.25% 10.81 4.72% 21.19

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.