Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.3%
Fair Odds 2.48
Draw
27.31%
Fair Odds 3.66
Away Win
32.39%
Fair Odds 3.09
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.24% Fair Odds 8.17

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.48 —
Draw 3.66 —
Away Win 3.09 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.24% 8.17
2 1-0 9.64% 10.37
3 2-1 8.69% 11.51
4 0-1 8.62% 11.6
5 1-2 7.77% 12.86
6 2-0 6.84% 14.61
7 0-0 6.79% 14.73
8 2-2 5.52% 18.12
9 0-2 5.47% 18.27
10 3-1 4.11% 24.31
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.62%
11.6
5.47%
18.27
2.32%
43.15
0.74%
135.91
0.19%
535.05
1
9.64%
10.37
12.24%
8.17
7.77%
12.86
3.29%
30.39
1.04%
95.71
0.27%
376.79
2
6.84%
14.61
8.69%
11.51
5.52%
18.12
2.34%
42.8
0.74%
134.81
0.19%
530.79
3
3.24%
30.87
4.11%
24.31
2.61%
38.28
1.11%
90.42
0.35%
284.82
0.09%
1121.08
4
1.15%
86.96
1.46%
68.47
0.93%
107.83
0.39%
254.71
0.12%
801.92
0.03%
3154.57
5
0.33%
306.18
0.41%
241.08
0.26%
379.65
0.11%
896.86
0.04%
2824.86
0.01%
11111.11
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.54% · Fair: 184.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.30%
Draw 27.31%
Away Win 32.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.53%
No 45.47%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.19% 13.92 12.01% 8.33 80.81% 1.24
-1.5 19.19% 5.21 — 80.81% 1.24
-1.0 19.19% 5.21 21.37% 4.68 59.44% 1.68
-0.5 40.56% 2.47 — 59.44% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.56% 2.47 25.79% 3.88 33.65% 2.97
+0.5 66.35% 1.51 — 33.65% 2.97
+1.0 66.35% 1.51 19.12% 5.23 14.53% 6.88
+1.5 85.47% 1.17 — 14.53% 6.88
+2.0 85.47% 1.17 9.6% 10.41 4.93% 20.29

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.