Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.79%
Fair Odds 2.58
Draw
27.71%
Fair Odds 3.61
Away Win
33.5%
Fair Odds 2.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.45% Fair Odds 8.03

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.58 —
Draw 3.61 —
Away Win 2.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.45% 8.03
2 1-0 9.8% 10.2
3 0-1 9.15% 10.92
4 2-1 8.47% 11.81
5 1-2 7.91% 12.65
6 0-0 7.21% 13.87
7 2-0 6.67% 15.0
8 0-2 5.81% 17.2
9 2-2 5.38% 18.6
10 3-1 3.84% 26.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.21%
13.87
9.15%
10.92
5.81%
17.2
2.46%
40.64
0.78%
127.99
0.2%
504.03
1
9.8%
10.2
12.45%
8.03
7.91%
12.65
3.35%
29.88
1.06%
94.12
0.27%
370.51
2
6.67%
15.0
8.47%
11.81
5.38%
18.6
2.28%
43.94
0.72%
138.41
0.18%
544.96
3
3.02%
33.09
3.84%
26.06
2.44%
41.03
1.03%
96.94
0.33%
305.34
0.08%
1201.92
4
1.03%
97.33
1.3%
76.64
0.83%
120.69
0.35%
285.06
0.11%
897.67
0.03%
3533.57
5
0.28%
357.78
0.35%
281.77
0.23%
443.66
0.1%
1048.22
0.03%
3300.33
0.01%
12987.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.48% · Fair: 209.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.21% 13.87
1 18.96% 5.28
2 24.93% 4.01
3 21.85% 4.58
4 14.37% 6.96
5+ 12.68% 7.88
Over 2.5 48.91% Under 2.5 51.09%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.79%
Draw 27.71%
Away Win 33.50%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.91%
Under 2.5 51.09%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.46%
No 46.54%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.48% 15.43 11.43% 8.75 82.08% 1.22
-1.5 17.92% 5.58 — 82.08% 1.22
-1.0 17.92% 5.58 21.09% 4.74 60.99% 1.64
-0.5 39.01% 2.56 — 60.99% 1.64
0 (PK) 39.01% 2.56 26.18% 3.82 34.81% 2.87
+0.5 65.19% 1.53 — 34.81% 2.87
+1.0 65.19% 1.53 19.69% 5.08 15.12% 6.61
+1.5 84.88% 1.18 — 15.12% 6.61
+2.0 84.88% 1.18 9.97% 10.03 5.15% 19.43

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.