Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.69%
Fair Odds 2.88
Draw
28.42%
Fair Odds 3.52
Away Win
36.89%
Fair Odds 2.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.77% Fair Odds 7.83

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.88 —
Draw 3.52 —
Away Win 2.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.77% 7.83
2 0-1 10.22% 9.79
3 1-0 10.06% 9.94
4 1-2 8.11% 12.33
5 0-0 8.05% 12.43
6 2-1 7.98% 12.53
7 0-2 6.49% 15.41
8 2-0 6.29% 15.91
9 2-2 5.07% 19.73
10 1-3 3.43% 29.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.05%
12.43
10.22%
9.79
6.49%
15.41
2.75%
36.4
0.87%
114.67
0.22%
451.47
1
10.06%
9.94
12.77%
7.83
8.11%
12.33
3.43%
29.12
1.09%
91.73
0.28%
361.14
2
6.29%
15.91
7.98%
12.53
5.07%
19.73
2.15%
46.6
0.68%
146.76
0.17%
577.7
3
2.62%
38.18
3.33%
30.06
2.11%
47.34
0.89%
111.83
0.28%
352.24
0.07%
1386.96
4
0.82%
122.17
1.04%
96.2
0.66%
151.49
0.28%
357.91
0.09%
1127.4
0.02%
4444.44
5
0.2%
488.76
0.26%
384.76
0.17%
606.06
0.07%
1430.62
0.02%
4504.5
0.01%
17857.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.38% · Fair: 261.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.05% 12.43
1 20.28% 4.93
2 25.55% 3.91
3 21.46% 4.66
4 13.52% 7.40
5+ 11.15% 8.97
Over 2.5 46.13% Under 2.5 53.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.69%
Draw 28.42%
Away Win 36.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.13%
Under 2.5 53.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.31%
No 48.69%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.28% 18.93 10.35% 9.66 84.37% 1.19
-1.5 15.63% 6.4 — 84.37% 1.19
-1.0 15.63% 6.4 20.46% 4.89 63.91% 1.56
-0.5 36.09% 2.77 — 63.91% 1.56
0 (PK) 36.09% 2.77 26.88% 3.72 37.04% 2.7
+0.5 62.96% 1.59 — 37.04% 2.7
+1.0 62.96% 1.59 20.78% 4.81 16.25% 6.15
+1.5 83.75% 1.19 — 16.25% 6.15
+2.0 83.75% 1.19 10.68% 9.36 5.57% 17.94

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.