Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.52%
Fair Odds 3.17
Draw
29.13%
Fair Odds 3.43
Away Win
39.36%
Fair Odds 2.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.02% Fair Odds 7.68

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.17 —
Draw 3.43 —
Away Win 2.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.02% 7.68
2 0-1 11.52% 8.68
3 1-0 10.25% 9.76
4 0-0 9.07% 11.02
5 1-2 8.27% 12.1
6 2-1 7.36% 13.59
7 0-2 7.32% 13.67
8 2-0 5.79% 17.27
9 2-2 4.67% 21.41
10 1-3 3.5% 28.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.07%
11.02
11.52%
8.68
7.32%
13.67
3.1%
32.29
0.98%
101.7
0.25%
400.32
1
10.25%
9.76
13.02%
7.68
8.27%
12.1
3.5%
28.57
1.11%
89.99
0.28%
354.36
2
5.79%
17.27
7.36%
13.59
4.67%
21.41
1.98%
50.57
0.63%
159.29
0.16%
626.96
3
2.18%
45.84
2.77%
36.09
1.76%
56.84
0.74%
134.26
0.24%
422.83
0.06%
1663.89
4
0.62%
162.26
0.78%
127.76
0.5%
201.21
0.21%
475.29
0.07%
1497.01
0.02%
5882.35
5
0.14%
717.88
0.18%
565.29
0.11%
890.47
0.05%
2100.84
0.02%
6622.52
0.0%
26315.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.31% · Fair: 323.21
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.07% 11.02
1 21.77% 4.59
2 26.13% 3.83
3 20.90% 4.78
4 12.54% 7.97
5+ 9.59% 10.43
Over 2.5 43.03% Under 2.5 56.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.52%
Draw 29.13%
Away Win 39.36%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.03%
Under 2.5 56.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.69%
No 51.31%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.12% 24.29 9.11% 10.98 86.77% 1.15
-1.5 13.23% 7.56 — 86.77% 1.15
-1.0 13.23% 7.56 19.59% 5.1 67.18% 1.49
-0.5 32.82% 3.05 — 67.18% 1.49
0 (PK) 32.82% 3.05 27.58% 3.63 39.6% 2.52
+0.5 60.4% 1.66 — 39.6% 2.52
+1.0 60.4% 1.66 22.02% 4.54 17.58% 5.69
+1.5 82.42% 1.21 — 17.58% 5.69
+2.0 82.42% 1.21 11.51% 8.69 6.08% 16.46

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.