Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.47%
Fair Odds 2.11
Draw
25.25%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
27.28%
Fair Odds 3.67
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.05% Fair Odds 9.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.11 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 3.67 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.05% 9.05
2 2-1 9.45% 10.58
3 1-0 8.77% 11.4
4 2-0 7.5% 13.33
5 1-2 6.96% 14.36
6 0-1 6.46% 15.47
7 2-2 5.95% 16.8
8 3-1 5.39% 18.56
9 0-0 5.13% 19.49
10 3-0 4.28% 23.39
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.13%
19.49
6.46%
15.47
4.07%
24.55
1.71%
58.47
0.54%
185.6
0.14%
736.38
1
8.77%
11.4
11.05%
9.05
6.96%
14.36
2.92%
34.19
0.92%
108.54
0.23%
430.66
2
7.5%
13.33
9.45%
10.58
5.95%
16.8
2.5%
39.99
0.79%
126.95
0.2%
503.78
3
4.28%
23.39
5.39%
18.56
3.39%
29.46
1.43%
70.16
0.45%
222.72
0.11%
883.39
4
1.83%
54.71
2.3%
43.42
1.45%
68.92
0.61%
164.1
0.19%
520.83
0.05%
2066.12
5
0.63%
159.97
0.79%
126.97
0.5%
201.53
0.21%
479.85
0.07%
1524.39
0.02%
6060.61
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.01% · Fair: 98.88
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.13% 19.49
1 15.24% 6.56
2 22.63% 4.42
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.63% 6.01
5+ 17.97% 5.56
Over 2.5 57.01% Under 2.5 42.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.47%
Draw 25.25%
Away Win 27.28%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.01%
Under 2.5 42.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.68%
No 41.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.11% 9.0 14.57% 6.86 74.32% 1.35
-1.5 25.68% 3.89 — 74.32% 1.35
-1.0 25.68% 3.89 22.3% 4.48 52.02% 1.92
-0.5 47.98% 2.08 — 52.02% 1.92
0 (PK) 47.98% 2.08 23.77% 4.21 28.25% 3.54
+0.5 71.75% 1.39 — 28.25% 3.54
+1.0 71.75% 1.39 16.43% 6.09 11.82% 8.46
+1.5 88.18% 1.13 — 11.82% 8.46
+2.0 88.18% 1.13 7.91% 12.64 3.91% 25.56

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.