Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.78%
Fair Odds 2.14
Draw
25.48%
Fair Odds 3.93
Away Win
27.75%
Fair Odds 3.6
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.19% Fair Odds 8.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.14 —
Draw 3.93 —
Away Win 3.6 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.19% 8.94
2 2-1 9.4% 10.64
3 1-0 8.88% 11.26
4 2-0 7.46% 13.4
5 1-2 7.05% 14.18
6 0-1 6.66% 15.01
7 2-2 5.92% 16.89
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 3-1 5.26% 19.0
10 0-2 4.2% 23.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
6.66%
15.01
4.2%
23.83
1.76%
56.74
0.56%
180.12
0.14%
714.8
1
8.88%
11.26
11.19%
8.94
7.05%
14.18
2.96%
33.77
0.93%
107.22
0.24%
425.53
2
7.46%
13.4
9.4%
10.64
5.92%
16.89
2.49%
40.2
0.78%
127.63
0.2%
506.59
3
4.18%
23.94
5.26%
19.0
3.32%
30.15
1.39%
71.79
0.44%
227.89
0.11%
904.16
4
1.75%
56.99
2.21%
45.23
1.39%
71.79
0.58%
170.94
0.18%
542.59
0.05%
2155.17
5
0.59%
169.61
0.74%
134.61
0.47%
213.68
0.2%
508.65
0.06%
1615.51
0.02%
6410.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.95% · Fair: 105.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.36% 18.64%
1.5 50.05% 49.95%
2.5 23.75% 76.25%
3.5 9.02% 90.98%
4.5 2.84% 97.16%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.78%
Draw 25.48%
Away Win 27.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.28%
No 41.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.68% 9.37 14.33% 6.98 74.99% 1.33
-1.5 25.01% 4.0 — 74.99% 1.33
-1.0 25.01% 4.0 22.25% 4.49 52.74% 1.9
-0.5 47.26% 2.12 — 52.74% 1.9
0 (PK) 47.26% 2.12 23.99% 4.17 28.75% 3.48
+0.5 71.25% 1.4 — 28.75% 3.48
+1.0 71.25% 1.4 16.69% 5.99 12.06% 8.29
+1.5 87.94% 1.14 — 12.06% 8.29
+2.0 87.94% 1.14 8.06% 12.4 4.0% 25.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.