Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.25%
Fair Odds 2.42
Draw
27.15%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
31.61%
Fair Odds 3.16
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.16% Fair Odds 8.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.42 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 3.16 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.16% 8.23
2 1-0 9.65% 10.37
3 2-1 8.81% 11.35
4 0-1 8.38% 11.93
5 1-2 7.66% 13.06
6 2-0 6.99% 14.3
7 0-0 6.65% 15.03
8 2-2 5.55% 18.01
9 0-2 5.28% 18.93
10 3-1 4.26% 23.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.65%
15.03
8.38%
11.93
5.28%
18.93
2.22%
45.08
0.7%
143.1
0.18%
567.86
1
9.65%
10.37
12.16%
8.23
7.66%
13.06
3.22%
31.09
1.01%
98.7
0.26%
391.7
2
6.99%
14.3
8.81%
11.35
5.55%
18.01
2.33%
42.88
0.73%
136.13
0.19%
540.25
3
3.38%
29.58
4.26%
23.48
2.68%
37.26
1.13%
88.72
0.36%
281.69
0.09%
1117.32
4
1.23%
81.6
1.54%
64.76
0.97%
102.8
0.41%
244.74
0.13%
777.0
0.03%
3086.42
5
0.36%
281.37
0.45%
223.31
0.28%
354.48
0.12%
843.88
0.04%
2680.97
0.01%
10638.3
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 175.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.65% 15.03
1 18.03% 5.55
2 24.43% 4.09
3 22.07% 4.53
4 14.95% 6.69
5+ 13.86% 7.22
Over 2.5 50.88% Under 2.5 49.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.25%
Draw 27.15%
Away Win 31.61%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.88%
Under 2.5 49.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.83%
No 45.17%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.6% 13.15 12.36% 8.09 80.04% 1.25
-1.5 19.96% 5.01 — 80.04% 1.25
-1.0 19.96% 5.01 21.59% 4.63 58.45% 1.71
-0.5 41.55% 2.41 — 58.45% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.55% 2.41 25.63% 3.9 32.82% 3.05
+0.5 67.18% 1.49 — 32.82% 3.05
+1.0 67.18% 1.49 18.76% 5.33 14.06% 7.11
+1.5 85.94% 1.16 — 14.06% 7.11
+2.0 85.94% 1.16 9.33% 10.72 4.73% 21.15

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.