Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.99%
Fair Odds 2.56
Draw
27.77%
Fair Odds 3.6
Away Win
33.24%
Fair Odds 3.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.48% Fair Odds 8.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.56 —
Draw 3.6 —
Away Win 3.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.48% 8.02
2 1-0 9.9% 10.1
3 0-1 9.17% 10.9
4 2-1 8.48% 11.79
5 1-2 7.86% 12.72
6 0-0 7.28% 13.74
7 2-0 6.73% 14.85
8 0-2 5.78% 17.3
9 2-2 5.34% 18.71
10 3-1 3.85% 26.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.28%
13.74
9.17%
10.9
5.78%
17.3
2.43%
41.2
0.76%
130.79
0.19%
518.94
1
9.9%
10.1
12.48%
8.02
7.86%
12.72
3.3%
30.29
1.04%
96.17
0.26%
381.68
2
6.73%
14.85
8.48%
11.79
5.34%
18.71
2.24%
44.55
0.71%
141.42
0.18%
561.17
3
3.05%
32.76
3.85%
26.0
2.42%
41.27
1.02%
98.27
0.32%
312.01
0.08%
1237.62
4
1.04%
96.36
1.31%
76.48
0.82%
121.39
0.35%
289.02
0.11%
917.43
0.03%
3636.36
5
0.28%
354.23
0.36%
281.14
0.22%
446.23
0.09%
1062.7
0.03%
3378.38
0.01%
13333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.47% · Fair: 213.45
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.28% 13.74
1 19.07% 5.24
2 24.99% 4.00
3 21.82% 4.58
4 14.29% 7.00
5+ 12.54% 7.97
Over 2.5 48.66% Under 2.5 51.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.99%
Draw 27.77%
Away Win 33.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.66%
Under 2.5 51.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.25%
No 46.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.53% 15.32 11.5% 8.69 81.97% 1.22
-1.5 18.03% 5.55 — 81.97% 1.22
-1.0 18.03% 5.55 21.18% 4.72 60.78% 1.65
-0.5 39.22% 2.55 — 60.78% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.22% 2.55 26.23% 3.81 34.55% 2.89
+0.5 65.45% 1.53 — 34.55% 2.89
+1.0 65.45% 1.53 19.63% 5.1 14.92% 6.7
+1.5 85.08% 1.18 — 14.92% 6.7
+2.0 85.08% 1.18 9.87% 10.13 5.05% 19.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.