Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.57%
Fair Odds 2.98
Draw
28.79%
Fair Odds 3.47
Away Win
37.64%
Fair Odds 2.66
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.92% Fair Odds 7.74

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.98 —
Draw 3.47 —
Away Win 2.66 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.92% 7.74
2 0-1 10.76% 9.29
3 1-0 10.25% 9.75
4 0-0 8.54% 11.7
5 1-2 8.14% 12.29
6 2-1 7.75% 12.9
7 0-2 6.78% 14.75
8 2-0 6.15% 16.26
9 2-2 4.88% 20.48
10 1-3 3.42% 29.26
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.54%
11.7
10.76%
9.29
6.78%
14.75
2.85%
35.11
0.9%
111.46
0.23%
442.28
1
10.25%
9.75
12.92%
7.74
8.14%
12.29
3.42%
29.26
1.08%
92.88
0.27%
368.6
2
6.15%
16.26
7.75%
12.9
4.88%
20.48
2.05%
48.76
0.65%
154.8
0.16%
614.25
3
2.46%
40.64
3.1%
32.25
1.95%
51.2
0.82%
121.91
0.26%
387.0
0.07%
1536.1
4
0.74%
135.46
0.93%
107.52
0.59%
170.68
0.25%
406.34
0.08%
1290.32
0.02%
5128.21
5
0.18%
564.33
0.22%
448.03
0.14%
711.24
0.06%
1692.05
0.02%
5376.34
0.0%
21276.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.34% · Fair: 293.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.54% 11.70
1 21.02% 4.76
2 25.85% 3.87
3 21.20% 4.72
4 13.04% 7.67
5+ 10.35% 9.66
Over 2.5 44.59% Under 2.5 55.41%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.57%
Draw 28.79%
Away Win 37.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.59%
Under 2.5 55.41%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.06%
No 49.94%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.81% 20.77 9.9% 10.1 85.28% 1.17
-1.5 14.72% 6.8 — 85.28% 1.17
-1.0 14.72% 6.8 20.22% 4.95 65.06% 1.54
-0.5 34.94% 2.86 — 65.06% 1.54
0 (PK) 34.94% 2.86 27.25% 3.67 37.82% 2.64
+0.5 62.18% 1.61 — 37.82% 2.64
+1.0 62.18% 1.61 21.23% 4.71 16.58% 6.03
+1.5 83.42% 1.2 — 16.58% 6.03
+2.0 83.42% 1.2 10.92% 9.16 5.67% 17.64

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.