Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.21%
Fair Odds 2.43
Draw
27.26%
Fair Odds 3.67
Away Win
31.53%
Fair Odds 3.17
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.22% Fair Odds 8.18

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.43 —
Draw 3.67 —
Away Win 3.17 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.22% 8.18
2 1-0 9.77% 10.23
3 2-1 8.8% 11.37
4 0-1 8.49% 11.79
5 1-2 7.64% 13.09
6 2-0 7.04% 14.21
7 0-0 6.79% 14.73
8 2-2 5.5% 18.19
9 0-2 5.3% 18.86
10 3-1 4.22% 23.68
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.49%
11.79
5.3%
18.86
2.21%
45.26
0.69%
144.82
0.17%
579.37
1
9.77%
10.23
12.22%
8.18
7.64%
13.09
3.18%
31.43
0.99%
100.56
0.25%
402.25
2
7.04%
14.21
8.8%
11.37
5.5%
18.19
2.29%
43.65
0.72%
139.68
0.18%
558.66
3
3.38%
29.6
4.22%
23.68
2.64%
37.89
1.1%
90.93
0.34%
291.04
0.09%
1164.14
4
1.22%
82.23
1.52%
65.78
0.95%
105.25
0.4%
252.59
0.12%
808.41
0.03%
3236.25
5
0.35%
285.47
0.44%
228.41
0.27%
365.5
0.11%
877.19
0.04%
2808.99
0.01%
11235.96
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.55% · Fair: 181.88
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.21%
Draw 27.26%
Away Win 31.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.44%
No 45.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.53% 13.28 12.33% 8.11 80.14% 1.25
-1.5 19.86% 5.03 — 80.14% 1.25
-1.0 19.86% 5.03 21.65% 4.62 58.49% 1.71
-0.5 41.51% 2.41 — 58.49% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.51% 2.41 25.74% 3.89 32.75% 3.05
+0.5 67.25% 1.49 — 32.75% 3.05
+1.0 67.25% 1.49 18.79% 5.32 13.96% 7.16
+1.5 86.04% 1.16 — 13.96% 7.16
+2.0 86.04% 1.16 9.29% 10.76 4.67% 21.42

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.