Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.94%
Fair Odds 2.57
Draw
27.89%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
33.17%
Fair Odds 3.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.53% Fair Odds 7.98

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.57 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 3.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.53% 7.98
2 1-0 10.03% 9.97
3 0-1 9.28% 10.77
4 2-1 8.46% 11.82
5 1-2 7.83% 12.77
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 2-0 6.77% 14.77
8 0-2 5.8% 17.23
9 2-2 5.29% 18.91
10 3-1 3.81% 26.27
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.28%
10.77
5.8%
17.23
2.42%
41.36
0.76%
132.35
0.19%
529.38
1
10.03%
9.97
12.53%
7.98
7.83%
12.77
3.26%
30.64
1.02%
98.04
0.26%
392.16
2
6.77%
14.77
8.46%
11.82
5.29%
18.91
2.2%
45.39
0.69%
145.24
0.17%
581.06
3
3.05%
32.83
3.81%
26.27
2.38%
42.03
0.99%
100.87
0.31%
322.79
0.08%
1290.32
4
1.03%
97.29
1.28%
77.83
0.8%
124.52
0.33%
298.86
0.1%
956.02
0.03%
3831.42
5
0.28%
360.36
0.35%
288.27
0.22%
461.25
0.09%
1107.42
0.03%
3546.1
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 221.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.94%
Draw 27.89%
Away Win 33.17%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.85%
No 47.15%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.46% 15.48 11.48% 8.71 82.07% 1.22
-1.5 17.93% 5.58 — 82.07% 1.22
-1.0 17.93% 5.58 21.23% 4.71 60.83% 1.64
-0.5 39.17% 2.55 — 60.83% 1.64
0 (PK) 39.17% 2.55 26.35% 3.79 34.48% 2.9
+0.5 65.52% 1.53 — 34.48% 2.9
+1.0 65.52% 1.53 19.66% 5.09 14.82% 6.75
+1.5 85.18% 1.17 — 14.82% 6.75
+2.0 85.18% 1.17 9.84% 10.16 4.99% 20.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.