Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.63%
Fair Odds 2.73
Draw
28.48%
Fair Odds 3.51
Away Win
34.88%
Fair Odds 2.87
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.8% Fair Odds 7.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.73 —
Draw 3.51 —
Away Win 2.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.8% 7.81
2 1-0 10.24% 9.77
3 0-1 10.16% 9.84
4 0-0 8.13% 12.3
5 2-1 8.06% 12.4
6 1-2 8.0% 12.5
7 2-0 6.45% 15.5
8 0-2 6.35% 15.75
9 2-2 5.04% 19.84
10 3-1 3.39% 29.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.13%
12.3
10.16%
9.84
6.35%
15.75
2.65%
37.8
0.83%
120.96
0.21%
483.79
1
10.24%
9.77
12.8%
7.81
8.0%
12.5
3.33%
30.0
1.04%
96.01
0.26%
384.02
2
6.45%
15.5
8.06%
12.4
5.04%
19.84
2.1%
47.62
0.66%
152.39
0.16%
609.38
3
2.71%
36.91
3.39%
29.53
2.12%
47.24
0.88%
113.38
0.28%
362.84
0.07%
1451.38
4
0.85%
117.16
1.07%
93.74
0.67%
149.97
0.28%
359.97
0.09%
1152.07
0.02%
4608.29
5
0.22%
464.9
0.27%
372.02
0.17%
595.24
0.07%
1428.57
0.02%
4566.21
0.01%
18181.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.37% · Fair: 266.95
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.13% 12.30
1 20.40% 4.90
2 25.60% 3.91
3 21.42% 4.67
4 13.44% 7.44
5+ 11.02% 9.08
Over 2.5 45.87% Under 2.5 54.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.63%
Draw 28.48%
Away Win 34.88%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.87%
Under 2.5 54.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.11%
No 48.89%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.47% 18.29 10.58% 9.45 83.95% 1.19
-1.5 16.05% 6.23 — 83.95% 1.19
-1.0 16.05% 6.23 20.72% 4.83 63.23% 1.58
-0.5 36.77% 2.72 — 63.23% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.77% 2.72 26.94% 3.71 36.29% 2.76
+0.5 63.71% 1.57 — 36.29% 2.76
+1.0 63.71% 1.57 20.56% 4.86 15.73% 6.36
+1.5 84.27% 1.19 — 15.73% 6.36
+2.0 84.27% 1.19 10.41% 9.6 5.32% 18.79

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.