Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.9%
Fair Odds 3.46
Draw
29.91%
Fair Odds 3.34
Away Win
41.19%
Fair Odds 2.43
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.17% Fair Odds 7.59

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.46 —
Draw 3.34 —
Away Win 2.43 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.17% 7.59
2 0-1 12.91% 7.74
3 1-0 10.54% 9.49
4 0-0 10.33% 9.68
5 1-2 8.23% 12.15
6 0-2 8.07% 12.39
7 2-1 6.72% 14.89
8 2-0 5.37% 18.61
9 2-2 4.2% 23.82
10 1-3 3.43% 29.15
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.33%
9.68
12.91%
7.74
8.07%
12.39
3.36%
29.74
1.05%
95.16
0.26%
380.66
1
10.54%
9.49
13.17%
7.59
8.23%
12.15
3.43%
29.15
1.07%
93.28
0.27%
373.13
2
5.37%
18.61
6.72%
14.89
4.2%
23.82
1.75%
57.16
0.55%
182.92
0.14%
731.53
3
1.83%
54.73
2.28%
43.78
1.43%
70.05
0.59%
168.12
0.19%
537.92
0.05%
2150.54
4
0.47%
214.59
0.58%
171.7
0.36%
274.73
0.15%
659.2
0.05%
2109.7
0.01%
8474.58
5
0.1%
1051.52
0.12%
841.75
0.07%
1345.9
0.03%
3236.25
0.01%
10309.28
0.0%
41666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.25% · Fair: 400.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.33% 9.68
1 23.45% 4.26
2 26.62% 3.76
3 20.14% 4.97
4 11.43% 8.75
5+ 8.03% 12.46
Over 2.5 39.6% Under 2.5 60.4%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.90%
Draw 29.91%
Away Win 41.19%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.6%
Under 2.5 60.4%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.62%
No 54.38%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.23% 30.99 8.06% 12.41 88.72% 1.13
-1.5 11.28% 8.86 — 88.72% 1.13
-1.0 11.28% 8.86 18.85% 5.31 69.87% 1.43
-0.5 30.13% 3.32 — 69.87% 1.43
0 (PK) 30.13% 3.32 28.35% 3.53 41.53% 2.41
+0.5 58.47% 1.71 — 41.53% 2.41
+1.0 58.47% 1.71 23.09% 4.33 18.43% 5.43
+1.5 81.57% 1.23 — 18.43% 5.43
+2.0 81.57% 1.23 12.1% 8.27 6.33% 15.79

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.