Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.52%
Fair Odds 3.63
Draw
30.17%
Fair Odds 3.31
Away Win
42.31%
Fair Odds 2.36
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.58% Fair Odds 7.37

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.63 —
Draw 3.31 —
Away Win 2.36 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.58% 7.37
2 1-1 13.17% 7.59
3 0-0 10.86% 9.21
4 1-0 10.54% 9.49
5 0-2 8.49% 11.79
6 1-2 8.23% 12.15
7 2-1 6.39% 15.66
8 2-0 5.11% 19.57
9 2-2 3.99% 25.05
10 0-3 3.54% 28.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.86%
9.21
13.58%
7.37
8.49%
11.79
3.54%
28.28
1.1%
90.51
0.28%
362.06
1
10.54%
9.49
13.17%
7.59
8.23%
12.15
3.43%
29.16
1.07%
93.31
0.27%
373.27
2
5.11%
19.57
6.39%
15.66
3.99%
25.05
1.66%
60.12
0.52%
192.38
0.13%
769.82
3
1.65%
60.53
2.07%
48.42
1.29%
77.48
0.54%
185.94
0.17%
594.88
0.04%
2380.95
4
0.4%
249.63
0.5%
199.68
0.31%
319.49
0.13%
766.87
0.04%
2450.98
0.01%
9803.92
5
0.08%
1287.0
0.1%
1028.81
0.06%
1647.45
0.03%
3952.57
0.01%
12658.23
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.23% · Fair: 426.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.86% 9.21
1 24.11% 4.15
2 26.76% 3.74
3 19.80% 5.05
4 10.99% 9.10
5+ 7.47% 13.39
Over 2.5 38.26% Under 2.5 61.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.52%
Draw 30.17%
Away Win 42.31%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.26%
Under 2.5 61.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.3%
No 55.7%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.84% 35.23 7.51% 13.31 89.65% 1.12
-1.5 10.35% 9.66 — 89.65% 1.12
-1.0 10.35% 9.66 18.35% 5.45 71.3% 1.4
-0.5 28.7% 3.48 — 71.3% 1.4
0 (PK) 28.7% 3.48 28.6% 3.5 42.69% 2.34
+0.5 57.31% 1.75 — 42.69% 2.34
+1.0 57.31% 1.75 23.65% 4.23 19.05% 5.25
+1.5 80.95% 1.24 — 19.05% 5.25
+2.0 80.95% 1.24 12.48% 8.01 6.57% 15.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.