Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.58%
Fair Odds 3.91
Draw
30.5%
Fair Odds 3.28
Away Win
43.92%
Fair Odds 2.28
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 14.56% Fair Odds 6.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.91 —
Draw 3.28 —
Away Win 2.28 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 14.56% 6.87
2 1-1 13.1% 7.63
3 0-0 11.65% 8.58
4 1-0 10.48% 9.54
5 0-2 9.1% 10.99
6 1-2 8.19% 12.21
7 2-1 5.9% 16.96
8 2-0 4.72% 21.2
9 0-3 3.79% 26.37
10 2-2 3.69% 27.13
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.65%
8.58
14.56%
6.87
9.1%
10.99
3.79%
26.37
1.18%
84.4
0.3%
337.61
1
10.48%
9.54
13.1%
7.63
8.19%
12.21
3.41%
29.3
1.07%
93.77
0.27%
375.09
2
4.72%
21.2
5.9%
16.96
3.69%
27.13
1.54%
65.12
0.48%
208.38
0.12%
833.33
3
1.42%
70.66
1.77%
56.53
1.11%
90.44
0.46%
217.06
0.14%
694.44
0.04%
2777.78
4
0.32%
314.07
0.4%
251.26
0.25%
401.93
0.1%
964.32
0.03%
3086.42
0.01%
12345.68
5
0.06%
1745.2
0.07%
1396.65
0.04%
2232.14
0.02%
5347.59
0.01%
17241.38
0.0%
66666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.22% · Fair: 458.3
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.65% 8.58
1 25.04% 3.99
2 26.92% 3.71
3 19.29% 5.18
4 10.37% 9.64
5+ 6.72% 14.88
Over 2.5 36.39% Under 2.5 63.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.58%
Draw 30.50%
Away Win 43.92%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.39%
Under 2.5 63.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.34%
No 57.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.34% 42.76 6.76% 14.8 90.91% 1.1
-1.5 9.09% 11.0 — 90.91% 1.1
-1.0 9.09% 11.0 17.6% 5.68 73.31% 1.36
-0.5 26.69% 3.75 — 73.31% 1.36
0 (PK) 26.69% 3.75 28.93% 3.46 44.38% 2.25
+0.5 55.62% 1.8 — 44.38% 2.25
+1.0 55.62% 1.8 24.44% 4.09 19.94% 5.02
+1.5 80.06% 1.25 — 19.94% 5.02
+2.0 80.06% 1.25 13.03% 7.67 6.91% 14.48

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.