Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
58.81%
Fair Odds 1.7
Draw
21.28%
Fair Odds 4.7
Away Win
19.91%
Fair Odds 5.02
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.6% Fair Odds 10.41

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.7 —
Draw 4.7 —
Away Win 5.02 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.6% 10.41
2 1-1 8.65% 11.56
3 2-0 7.75% 12.91
4 3-1 7.11% 14.07
5 1-0 6.98% 14.33
6 2-2 5.95% 16.79
7 3-0 5.73% 17.45
8 1-2 5.36% 18.64
9 3-2 4.41% 22.69
10 4-1 3.94% 25.35
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.14%
31.82
3.9%
25.66
2.42%
41.38
1.0%
100.12
0.31%
323.0
0.08%
1302.08
1
6.98%
14.33
8.65%
11.56
5.36%
18.64
2.22%
45.1
0.69%
145.48
0.17%
586.51
2
7.75%
12.91
9.6%
10.41
5.95%
16.79
2.46%
40.63
0.76%
131.06
0.19%
528.54
3
5.73%
17.45
7.11%
14.07
4.41%
22.69
1.82%
54.91
0.56%
177.12
0.14%
714.29
4
3.18%
31.44
3.94%
25.35
2.45%
40.89
1.01%
98.93
0.31%
319.18
0.08%
1287.0
5
1.41%
70.81
1.75%
57.1
1.09%
92.1
0.45%
222.82
0.14%
718.91
0.03%
2898.55
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.76% · Fair: 36.27
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 89.14% 10.86%
1.5 65.03% 34.97%
2.5 38.26% 61.74%
3.5 18.46% 81.54%
4.5 7.47% 92.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.14% 31.82
1 10.88% 9.20
2 18.81% 5.32
3 21.70% 4.61
4 18.77% 5.33
5+ 26.70% 3.75
Over 2.5 67.17% Under 2.5 32.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 58.81%
Draw 21.28%
Away Win 19.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.17%
Under 2.5 32.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.34%
No 36.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 19.62% 5.1 17.8% 5.62 62.58% 1.6
-1.5 37.42% 2.67 — 62.58% 1.6
-1.0 37.42% 2.67 22.15% 4.51 40.43% 2.47
-0.5 59.57% 1.68 — 40.43% 2.47
0 (PK) 59.57% 1.68 19.92% 5.02 20.51% 4.88
+0.5 79.49% 1.26 — 20.51% 4.88
+1.0 79.49% 1.26 12.37% 8.08 8.13% 12.29
+1.5 91.86% 1.09 — 8.13% 12.29
+2.0 91.86% 1.09 5.55% 18.01 2.58% 38.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.