Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.73%
Fair Odds 2.01
Draw
24.66%
Fair Odds 4.06
Away Win
25.61%
Fair Odds 3.9
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.72% Fair Odds 9.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.01 —
Draw 4.06 —
Away Win 3.9 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.72% 9.32
2 2-1 9.6% 10.42
3 1-0 8.65% 11.56
4 2-0 7.74% 12.92
5 1-2 6.65% 15.04
6 0-1 5.99% 16.69
7 2-2 5.95% 16.8
8 3-1 5.73% 17.46
9 0-0 4.83% 20.7
10 3-0 4.62% 21.65
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.83%
20.7
5.99%
16.69
3.71%
26.92
1.54%
65.13
0.48%
210.08
0.12%
847.46
1
8.65%
11.56
10.72%
9.32
6.65%
15.04
2.75%
36.39
0.85%
117.37
0.21%
473.26
2
7.74%
12.92
9.6%
10.42
5.95%
16.8
2.46%
40.66
0.76%
131.15
0.19%
528.82
3
4.62%
21.65
5.73%
17.46
3.55%
28.16
1.47%
68.14
0.46%
219.78
0.11%
886.52
4
2.07%
48.38
2.56%
39.02
1.59%
62.94
0.66%
152.25
0.2%
491.16
0.05%
1980.2
5
0.74%
135.15
0.92%
108.99
0.57%
175.81
0.24%
425.35
0.07%
1371.74
0.02%
5524.86
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.19% · Fair: 84.29
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.3% 16.7%
1.5 53.42% 46.58%
2.5 26.67% 73.33%
3.5 10.71% 89.29%
4.5 3.57% 96.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.83% 20.70
1 14.64% 6.83
2 22.18% 4.51
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.97% 5.89
5+ 18.98% 5.27
Over 2.5 58.35% Under 2.5 41.65%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.73%
Draw 24.66%
Away Win 25.61%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.35%
Under 2.5 41.65%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.2%
No 40.8%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.46% 8.03 15.31% 6.53 72.23% 1.38
-1.5 27.77% 3.6 — 72.23% 1.38
-1.0 27.77% 3.6 22.53% 4.44 49.7% 2.01
-0.5 50.3% 1.99 — 49.7% 2.01
0 (PK) 50.3% 1.99 23.2% 4.31 26.5% 3.77
+0.5 73.5% 1.36 — 26.5% 3.77
+1.0 73.5% 1.36 15.61% 6.41 10.89% 9.18
+1.5 89.11% 1.12 — 10.89% 9.18
+2.0 89.11% 1.12 7.35% 13.61 3.54% 28.24

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.