Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.13%
Fair Odds 2.62
Draw
28.21%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
33.66%
Fair Odds 2.97
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.68% Fair Odds 7.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.62 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 2.97 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.68% 7.88
2 1-0 10.23% 9.78
3 0-1 9.68% 10.33
4 2-1 8.31% 12.04
5 1-2 7.86% 12.72
6 0-0 7.81% 12.81
7 2-0 6.7% 14.93
8 0-2 6.0% 16.66
9 2-2 5.15% 19.41
10 3-1 3.63% 27.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.81%
12.81
9.68%
10.33
6.0%
16.66
2.48%
40.3
0.77%
130.01
0.19%
524.11
1
10.23%
9.78
12.68%
7.88
7.86%
12.72
3.25%
30.77
1.01%
99.25
0.25%
400.16
2
6.7%
14.93
8.31%
12.04
5.15%
19.41
2.13%
46.97
0.66%
151.52
0.16%
610.87
3
2.93%
34.18
3.63%
27.57
2.25%
44.46
0.93%
107.56
0.29%
346.98
0.07%
1398.6
4
0.96%
104.37
1.19%
84.17
0.74%
135.76
0.3%
328.41
0.09%
1059.32
0.02%
4273.5
5
0.25%
398.41
0.31%
321.23
0.19%
518.13
0.08%
1253.13
0.02%
4048.58
0.01%
16393.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.41% · Fair: 245.34
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.81% 12.81
1 19.91% 5.02
2 25.39% 3.94
3 21.58% 4.63
4 13.76% 7.27
5+ 11.56% 8.65
Over 2.5 46.89% Under 2.5 53.11%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.13%
Draw 28.21%
Away Win 33.66%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.89%
Under 2.5 53.11%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.89%
No 48.11%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.05% 16.53 11.15% 8.97 82.8% 1.21
-1.5 17.2% 5.81 — 82.8% 1.21
-1.0 17.2% 5.81 21.12% 4.74 61.68% 1.62
-0.5 38.32% 2.61 — 61.68% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.32% 2.61 26.67% 3.75 35.01% 2.86
+0.5 64.99% 1.54 — 35.01% 2.86
+1.0 64.99% 1.54 19.99% 5.0 15.02% 6.66
+1.5 84.98% 1.18 — 15.02% 6.66
+2.0 84.98% 1.18 9.99% 10.01 5.03% 19.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.