Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.57%
Fair Odds 2.73
Draw
28.61%
Fair Odds 3.49
Away Win
34.81%
Fair Odds 2.87
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.85% Fair Odds 7.78

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.73 —
Draw 3.49 —
Away Win 2.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.85% 7.78
2 1-0 10.36% 9.65
3 0-1 10.28% 9.73
4 0-0 8.29% 12.06
5 2-1 8.03% 12.45
6 1-2 7.97% 12.55
7 2-0 6.48% 15.44
8 0-2 6.37% 15.69
9 2-2 4.98% 20.08
10 3-1 3.35% 29.88
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.29%
12.06
10.28%
9.73
6.37%
15.69
2.63%
37.96
0.82%
122.44
0.2%
493.58
1
10.36%
9.65
12.85%
7.78
7.97%
12.55
3.29%
30.36
1.02%
97.95
0.25%
394.94
2
6.48%
15.44
8.03%
12.45
4.98%
20.08
2.06%
48.58
0.64%
156.72
0.16%
632.11
3
2.7%
37.05
3.35%
29.88
2.07%
48.2
0.86%
116.6
0.27%
376.08
0.07%
1517.45
4
0.84%
118.57
1.05%
95.62
0.65%
154.23
0.27%
373.13
0.08%
1203.37
0.02%
4854.37
5
0.21%
474.16
0.26%
382.41
0.16%
616.9
0.07%
1492.54
0.02%
4807.69
0.01%
19230.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.36% · Fair: 277.55
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.29% 12.06
1 20.64% 4.84
2 25.70% 3.89
3 21.33% 4.69
4 13.28% 7.53
5+ 10.75% 9.30
Over 2.5 45.36% Under 2.5 54.64%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.57%
Draw 28.61%
Away Win 34.81%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.36%
Under 2.5 54.64%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.7%
No 49.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.4% 18.52 10.54% 9.48 84.06% 1.19
-1.5 15.94% 6.27 — 84.06% 1.19
-1.0 15.94% 6.27 20.76% 4.82 63.3% 1.58
-0.5 36.7% 2.72 — 63.3% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.7% 2.72 27.07% 3.69 36.23% 2.76
+0.5 63.77% 1.57 — 36.23% 2.76
+1.0 63.77% 1.57 20.59% 4.86 15.63% 6.4
+1.5 84.37% 1.19 — 15.63% 6.4
+2.0 84.37% 1.19 10.38% 9.64 5.26% 19.02

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.