Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.8%
Fair Odds 3.14
Draw
29.43%
Fair Odds 3.4
Away Win
38.77%
Fair Odds 2.58
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.11% Fair Odds 7.63

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.14 —
Draw 3.4 —
Away Win 2.58 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.11% 7.63
2 0-1 11.71% 8.54
3 1-0 10.58% 9.46
4 0-0 9.44% 10.59
5 1-2 8.13% 12.3
6 2-1 7.34% 13.62
7 0-2 7.26% 13.78
8 2-0 5.92% 16.89
9 2-2 4.55% 21.96
10 1-3 3.36% 29.76
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.44%
10.59
11.71%
8.54
7.26%
13.78
3.0%
33.33
0.93%
107.52
0.23%
433.46
1
10.58%
9.46
13.11%
7.63
8.13%
12.3
3.36%
29.76
1.04%
96.0
0.26%
387.0
2
5.92%
16.89
7.34%
13.62
4.55%
21.96
1.88%
53.14
0.58%
171.41
0.14%
691.09
3
2.21%
45.23
2.74%
36.48
1.7%
58.83
0.7%
142.33
0.22%
459.14
0.05%
1851.85
4
0.62%
161.52
0.77%
130.28
0.48%
210.13
0.2%
508.39
0.06%
1639.34
0.02%
6622.52
5
0.14%
720.98
0.17%
581.73
0.11%
938.09
0.04%
2267.57
0.01%
7299.27
0.0%
29411.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.28% · Fair: 353.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.44% 10.59
1 22.28% 4.49
2 26.29% 3.80
3 20.68% 4.83
4 12.20% 8.19
5+ 9.09% 11.00
Over 2.5 41.98% Under 2.5 58.02%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.80%
Draw 29.43%
Away Win 38.77%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.98%
Under 2.5 58.02%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.88%
No 52.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.12% 24.29 9.19% 10.89 86.7% 1.15
-1.5 13.3% 7.52 — 86.7% 1.15
-1.0 13.3% 7.52 19.83% 5.04 66.87% 1.5
-0.5 33.13% 3.02 — 66.87% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.13% 3.02 27.88% 3.59 38.99% 2.56
+0.5 61.01% 1.64 — 38.99% 2.56
+1.0 61.01% 1.64 21.95% 4.56 17.04% 5.87
+1.5 82.96% 1.21 — 17.04% 5.87
+2.0 82.96% 1.21 11.26% 8.88 5.78% 17.31

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.