Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.05%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
26.3%
Fair Odds 3.8
Away Win
28.65%
Fair Odds 3.49
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.7% Fair Odds 8.55

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 3.8 —
Away Win 3.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.7% 8.55
2 1-0 9.51% 10.51
3 2-1 9.24% 10.82
4 2-0 7.51% 13.31
5 0-1 7.41% 13.5
6 1-2 7.2% 13.9
7 0-0 6.02% 16.61
8 2-2 5.68% 17.59
9 3-1 4.87% 20.54
10 0-2 4.55% 21.96
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.02%
16.61
7.41%
13.5
4.55%
21.96
1.87%
53.56
0.57%
174.16
0.14%
708.22
1
9.51%
10.51
11.7%
8.55
7.2%
13.9
2.95%
33.9
0.91%
110.23
0.22%
448.03
2
7.51%
13.31
9.24%
10.82
5.68%
17.59
2.33%
42.91
0.72%
139.53
0.18%
567.21
3
3.96%
25.27
4.87%
20.54
2.99%
33.4
1.23%
81.47
0.38%
264.9
0.09%
1076.43
4
1.56%
63.97
1.92%
52.0
1.18%
84.56
0.48%
206.23
0.15%
670.69
0.04%
2724.8
5
0.49%
202.43
0.61%
164.58
0.37%
267.59
0.15%
652.74
0.05%
2123.14
0.01%
8620.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.74% · Fair: 135.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.02% 16.61
1 16.92% 5.91
2 23.77% 4.21
3 22.26% 4.49
4 15.64% 6.39
5+ 15.39% 6.50
Over 2.5 53.29% Under 2.5 46.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.05%
Draw 26.30%
Away Win 28.65%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.29%
Under 2.5 46.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.19%
No 43.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.47% 10.56 13.73% 7.28 76.8% 1.3
-1.5 23.2% 4.31 — 76.8% 1.3
-1.0 23.2% 4.31 22.28% 4.49 54.51% 1.83
-0.5 45.49% 2.2 — 54.51% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.49% 2.2 24.79% 4.03 29.72% 3.36
+0.5 70.28% 1.42 — 29.72% 3.36
+1.0 70.28% 1.42 17.35% 5.76 12.37% 8.08
+1.5 87.63% 1.14 — 12.37% 8.08
+2.0 87.63% 1.14 8.32% 12.02 4.05% 24.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.