Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.12%
Fair Odds 2.37
Draw
27.19%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
30.68%
Fair Odds 3.26
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.19% Fair Odds 8.2

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.37 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 3.26 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.19% 8.2
2 1-0 9.91% 10.09
3 2-1 8.9% 11.24
4 0-1 8.35% 11.98
5 1-2 7.5% 13.34
6 2-0 7.23% 13.82
7 0-0 6.79% 14.73
8 2-2 5.47% 18.27
9 0-2 5.13% 19.47
10 3-1 4.33% 23.09
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.35%
11.98
5.13%
19.47
2.11%
47.5
0.65%
154.46
0.16%
627.75
1
9.91%
10.09
12.19%
8.2
7.5%
13.34
3.07%
32.53
0.95%
105.8
0.23%
430.11
2
7.23%
13.82
8.9%
11.24
5.47%
18.27
2.24%
44.57
0.69%
144.93
0.17%
589.28
3
3.52%
28.4
4.33%
23.09
2.66%
37.55
1.09%
91.58
0.34%
297.8
0.08%
1210.65
4
1.29%
77.81
1.58%
63.26
0.97%
102.87
0.4%
250.88
0.12%
815.66
0.03%
3311.26
5
0.38%
266.45
0.46%
216.64
0.28%
352.24
0.12%
859.11
0.04%
2793.3
0.01%
11363.64
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 178.44
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.12%
Draw 27.19%
Away Win 30.68%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.34%
No 45.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.89% 12.68 12.66% 7.9 79.45% 1.26
-1.5 20.55% 4.87 — 79.45% 1.26
-1.0 20.55% 4.87 21.91% 4.56 57.54% 1.74
-0.5 42.46% 2.36 — 57.54% 1.74
0 (PK) 42.46% 2.36 25.67% 3.89 31.87% 3.14
+0.5 68.13% 1.47 — 31.87% 3.14
+1.0 68.13% 1.47 18.46% 5.42 13.41% 7.46
+1.5 86.59% 1.15 — 13.41% 7.46
+2.0 86.59% 1.15 8.99% 11.13 4.42% 22.62

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.