Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.35%
Fair Odds 2.54
Draw
27.99%
Fair Odds 3.57
Away Win
32.66%
Fair Odds 3.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.58% Fair Odds 7.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.54 —
Draw 3.57 —
Away Win 3.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.58% 7.95
2 1-0 10.23% 9.78
3 0-1 9.32% 10.73
4 2-1 8.49% 11.77
5 1-2 7.74% 12.92
6 0-0 7.58% 13.2
7 2-0 6.9% 14.48
8 0-2 5.73% 17.45
9 2-2 5.22% 19.15
10 3-1 3.82% 26.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.58%
13.2
9.32%
10.73
5.73%
17.45
2.35%
42.55
0.72%
138.37
0.18%
562.43
1
10.23%
9.78
12.58%
7.95
7.74%
12.92
3.17%
31.52
0.98%
102.5
0.24%
416.67
2
6.9%
14.48
8.49%
11.77
5.22%
19.15
2.14%
46.7
0.66%
151.86
0.16%
617.28
3
3.11%
32.18
3.82%
26.16
2.35%
42.55
0.96%
103.77
0.3%
337.5
0.07%
1371.74
4
1.05%
95.36
1.29%
77.53
0.79%
126.06
0.33%
307.5
0.1%
1000.0
0.02%
4065.04
5
0.28%
353.23
0.35%
287.11
0.21%
466.85
0.09%
1138.95
0.03%
3703.7
0.01%
15151.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.44% · Fair: 228.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.58% 13.20
1 19.55% 5.12
2 25.22% 3.97
3 21.69% 4.61
4 13.99% 7.15
5+ 11.98% 8.35
Over 2.5 47.65% Under 2.5 52.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.35%
Draw 27.99%
Away Win 32.66%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.65%
Under 2.5 52.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.42%
No 47.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.55% 15.26 11.61% 8.61 81.83% 1.22
-1.5 18.17% 5.5 — 81.83% 1.22
-1.0 18.17% 5.5 21.43% 4.67 60.41% 1.66
-0.5 39.59% 2.53 — 60.41% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.59% 2.53 26.45% 3.78 33.95% 2.95
+0.5 66.05% 1.51 — 33.95% 2.95
+1.0 66.05% 1.51 19.52% 5.12 14.43% 6.93
+1.5 85.57% 1.17 — 14.43% 6.93
+2.0 85.57% 1.17 9.64% 10.37 4.79% 20.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.