Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.03%
Fair Odds 2.7
Draw
28.61%
Fair Odds 3.5
Away Win
34.36%
Fair Odds 2.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.85% Fair Odds 7.78

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.7 —
Draw 3.5 —
Away Win 2.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.85% 7.78
2 1-0 10.45% 9.57
3 0-1 10.2% 9.81
4 0-0 8.29% 12.06
5 2-1 8.1% 12.35
6 1-2 7.9% 12.65
7 2-0 6.58% 15.19
8 0-2 6.27% 15.94
9 2-2 4.98% 20.09
10 3-1 3.4% 29.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.29%
12.06
10.2%
9.81
6.27%
15.94
2.57%
38.89
0.79%
126.47
0.19%
514.14
1
10.45%
9.57
12.85%
7.78
7.9%
12.65
3.24%
30.86
1.0%
100.37
0.25%
408.0
2
6.58%
15.19
8.1%
12.35
4.98%
20.09
2.04%
48.99
0.63%
159.31
0.15%
647.67
3
2.76%
36.18
3.4%
29.41
2.09%
47.82
0.86%
116.65
0.26%
379.36
0.06%
1540.83
4
0.87%
114.85
1.07%
93.37
0.66%
151.81
0.27%
370.37
0.08%
1204.82
0.02%
4901.96
5
0.22%
455.79
0.27%
370.51
0.17%
602.41
0.07%
1468.43
0.02%
4784.69
0.01%
19607.84
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.36% · Fair: 277.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.29% 12.06
1 20.64% 4.84
2 25.70% 3.89
3 21.33% 4.69
4 13.28% 7.53
5+ 10.75% 9.30
Over 2.5 45.36% Under 2.5 54.64%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.03%
Draw 28.61%
Away Win 34.36%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.36%
Under 2.5 54.64%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.7%
No 49.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.55% 18.03 10.71% 9.33 83.74% 1.19
-1.5 16.26% 6.15 — 83.74% 1.19
-1.0 16.26% 6.15 20.92% 4.78 62.82% 1.59
-0.5 37.18% 2.69 — 62.82% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.18% 2.69 27.06% 3.69 35.75% 2.8
+0.5 64.25% 1.56 — 35.75% 2.8
+1.0 64.25% 1.56 20.43% 4.9 15.32% 6.53
+1.5 84.68% 1.18 — 15.32% 6.53
+2.0 84.68% 1.18 10.21% 9.8 5.12% 19.55

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.