Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.14%
Fair Odds 2.93
Draw
29.01%
Fair Odds 3.45
Away Win
36.85%
Fair Odds 2.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.99% Fair Odds 7.7

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.93 —
Draw 3.45 —
Away Win 2.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.99% 7.7
2 0-1 10.83% 9.23
3 1-0 10.56% 9.47
4 0-0 8.8% 11.36
5 1-2 7.99% 12.51
6 2-1 7.8% 12.83
7 0-2 6.66% 15.02
8 2-0 6.34% 15.78
9 2-2 4.79% 20.86
10 1-3 3.28% 30.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.8%
11.36
10.83%
9.23
6.66%
15.02
2.73%
36.62
0.84%
119.1
0.21%
484.26
1
10.56%
9.47
12.99%
7.7
7.99%
12.51
3.28%
30.52
1.01%
99.26
0.25%
403.39
2
6.34%
15.78
7.8%
12.83
4.79%
20.86
1.97%
50.87
0.6%
165.43
0.15%
672.49
3
2.54%
39.44
3.12%
32.07
1.92%
52.14
0.79%
127.16
0.24%
413.56
0.06%
1680.67
4
0.76%
131.48
0.94%
106.88
0.58%
173.79
0.24%
423.91
0.07%
1379.31
0.02%
5617.98
5
0.18%
547.65
0.22%
445.43
0.14%
724.11
0.06%
1766.78
0.02%
5747.13
0.0%
23255.81
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.32% · Fair: 312.89
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.80% 11.36
1 21.39% 4.67
2 25.99% 3.85
3 21.05% 4.75
4 12.79% 7.82
5+ 9.97% 10.03
Over 2.5 43.81% Under 2.5 56.19%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.14%
Draw 29.01%
Away Win 36.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.81%
Under 2.5 56.19%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.45%
No 50.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.92% 20.32 10.09% 9.91 84.98% 1.18
-1.5 15.02% 6.66 — 84.98% 1.18
-1.0 15.02% 6.66 20.53% 4.87 64.45% 1.55
-0.5 35.55% 2.81 — 64.45% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.55% 2.81 27.46% 3.64 37.0% 2.7
+0.5 63.0% 1.59 — 37.0% 2.7
+1.0 63.0% 1.59 21.05% 4.75 15.95% 6.27
+1.5 84.05% 1.19 — 15.95% 6.27
+2.0 84.05% 1.19 10.6% 9.43 5.35% 18.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.