Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.26%
Fair Odds 3.1
Draw
29.45%
Fair Odds 3.4
Away Win
38.29%
Fair Odds 2.61
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.12% Fair Odds 7.62

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.1 —
Draw 3.4 —
Away Win 2.61 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.12% 7.62
2 0-1 11.61% 8.61
3 1-0 10.67% 9.37
4 0-0 9.44% 10.59
5 1-2 8.07% 12.39
6 2-1 7.41% 13.49
7 0-2 7.14% 14.0
8 2-0 6.03% 16.59
9 2-2 4.56% 21.93
10 1-3 3.31% 30.22
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.44%
10.59
11.61%
8.61
7.14%
14.0
2.93%
34.15
0.9%
111.05
0.22%
451.47
1
10.67%
9.37
13.12%
7.62
8.07%
12.39
3.31%
30.22
1.02%
98.28
0.25%
399.52
2
6.03%
16.59
7.41%
13.49
4.56%
21.93
1.87%
53.49
0.57%
173.94
0.14%
707.21
3
2.27%
44.04
2.79%
35.81
1.72%
58.22
0.7%
142.01
0.22%
461.68
0.05%
1876.17
4
0.64%
155.88
0.79%
126.74
0.49%
206.1
0.2%
502.77
0.06%
1633.99
0.01%
6666.67
5
0.14%
689.66
0.18%
560.85
0.11%
911.58
0.04%
2222.22
0.01%
7246.38
0.0%
29411.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.28% · Fair: 356.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.44% 10.59
1 22.28% 4.49
2 26.29% 3.80
3 20.68% 4.83
4 12.20% 8.19
5+ 9.09% 11.00
Over 2.5 41.98% Under 2.5 58.02%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.26%
Draw 29.45%
Away Win 38.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.98%
Under 2.5 58.02%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.91%
No 52.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.24% 23.58 9.35% 10.69 86.4% 1.16
-1.5 13.6% 7.36 — 86.4% 1.16
-1.0 13.6% 7.36 20.02% 5.0 66.39% 1.51
-0.5 33.61% 2.98 — 66.39% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.61% 2.98 27.89% 3.58 38.49% 2.6
+0.5 61.51% 1.63 — 38.49% 2.6
+1.0 61.51% 1.63 21.79% 4.59 16.71% 5.99
+1.5 83.29% 1.2 — 16.71% 5.99
+2.0 83.29% 1.2 11.08% 9.02 5.63% 17.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.