Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.9%
Fair Odds 3.24
Draw
29.76%
Fair Odds 3.36
Away Win
39.34%
Fair Odds 2.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.19% Fair Odds 7.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.24 —
Draw 3.36 —
Away Win 2.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.19% 7.58
2 0-1 12.21% 8.19
3 1-0 10.72% 9.33
4 0-0 9.93% 10.07
5 1-2 8.11% 12.33
6 0-2 7.51% 13.32
7 2-1 7.12% 14.04
8 2-0 5.79% 17.27
9 2-2 4.38% 22.84
10 1-3 3.32% 30.08
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.93%
10.07
12.21%
8.19
7.51%
13.32
3.08%
32.48
0.95%
105.64
0.23%
429.37
1
10.72%
9.33
13.19%
7.58
8.11%
12.33
3.32%
30.08
1.02%
97.81
0.25%
397.61
2
5.79%
17.27
7.12%
14.04
4.38%
22.84
1.8%
55.7
0.55%
181.13
0.14%
736.38
3
2.08%
47.98
2.56%
39.01
1.58%
63.44
0.65%
154.73
0.2%
503.02
0.05%
2044.99
4
0.56%
177.71
0.69%
144.49
0.43%
234.96
0.17%
573.07
0.05%
1862.2
0.01%
7575.76
5
0.12%
823.05
0.15%
668.9
0.09%
1088.14
0.04%
2652.52
0.01%
8620.69
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 387.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.93% 10.07
1 22.93% 4.36
2 26.48% 3.78
3 20.39% 4.90
4 11.78% 8.49
5+ 8.49% 11.78
Over 2.5 40.66% Under 2.5 59.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.90%
Draw 29.76%
Away Win 39.34%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.66%
Under 2.5 59.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.74%
No 53.26%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.79% 26.41 8.82% 11.34 87.4% 1.14
-1.5 12.6% 7.93 — 87.4% 1.14
-1.0 12.6% 7.93 19.6% 5.1 67.79% 1.48
-0.5 32.21% 3.1 — 67.79% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.21% 3.1 28.19% 3.55 39.6% 2.53
+0.5 60.4% 1.66 — 39.6% 2.53
+1.0 60.4% 1.66 22.33% 4.48 17.27% 5.79
+1.5 82.73% 1.21 — 17.27% 5.79
+2.0 82.73% 1.21 11.44% 8.74 5.83% 17.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.