Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
56.43%
Fair Odds 1.77
Draw
22.35%
Fair Odds 4.47
Away Win
21.22%
Fair Odds 4.71
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.73% Fair Odds 10.27

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.77 —
Draw 4.47 —
Away Win 4.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.73% 10.27
2 1-1 9.36% 10.68
3 2-0 7.98% 12.53
4 1-0 7.67% 13.03
5 3-1 6.75% 14.82
6 2-2 5.94% 16.84
7 1-2 5.71% 17.52
8 3-0 5.53% 18.08
9 0-1 4.5% 22.22
10 3-2 4.12% 24.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
4.5%
22.22
2.74%
36.43
1.12%
89.58
0.34%
293.69
0.08%
1203.37
1
7.67%
13.03
9.36%
10.68
5.71%
17.52
2.32%
43.07
0.71%
141.22
0.17%
578.7
2
7.98%
12.53
9.73%
10.27
5.94%
16.84
2.41%
41.41
0.74%
135.78
0.18%
556.48
3
5.53%
18.08
6.75%
14.82
4.12%
24.29
1.67%
59.73
0.51%
195.85
0.12%
802.57
4
2.88%
34.76
3.51%
28.49
2.14%
46.71
0.87%
114.86
0.27%
376.65
0.06%
1543.21
5
1.2%
83.56
1.46%
68.5
0.89%
112.28
0.36%
276.09
0.11%
904.98
0.03%
3703.7
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.12% · Fair: 47.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.51% 12.49%
1.5 61.52% 38.48%
2.5 34.5% 65.5%
3.5 15.76% 84.24%
4.5 6.01% 93.98%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 56.43%
Draw 22.35%
Away Win 21.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.67%
No 38.33%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 17.37% 5.76 17.27% 5.79 65.35% 1.53
-1.5 34.64% 2.89 — 65.35% 1.53
-1.0 34.64% 2.89 22.51% 4.44 42.84% 2.33
-0.5 57.16% 1.75 — 42.84% 2.33
0 (PK) 57.16% 1.75 20.95% 4.77 21.89% 4.57
+0.5 78.11% 1.28 — 21.89% 4.57
+1.0 78.11% 1.28 13.2% 7.57 8.68% 11.52
+1.5 91.32% 1.1 — 8.68% 11.52
+2.0 91.32% 1.1 5.94% 16.83 2.74% 36.49

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.