Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.57%
Fair Odds 2.06
Draw
25.23%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
26.2%
Fair Odds 3.82
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.09% Fair Odds 9.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.06 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 3.82 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.09% 9.01
2 2-1 9.54% 10.48
3 1-0 9.09% 11.0
4 2-0 7.82% 12.79
5 1-2 6.77% 14.78
6 0-1 6.45% 15.5
7 2-2 5.82% 17.18
8 3-1 5.47% 18.28
9 0-0 5.29% 18.92
10 3-0 4.48% 22.3
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
6.45%
15.5
3.93%
25.42
1.6%
62.5
0.49%
204.92
0.12%
839.63
1
9.09%
11.0
11.09%
9.01
6.77%
14.78
2.75%
36.34
0.84%
119.15
0.2%
488.28
2
7.82%
12.79
9.54%
10.48
5.82%
17.18
2.37%
42.25
0.72%
138.54
0.18%
567.86
3
4.48%
22.3
5.47%
18.28
3.34%
29.97
1.36%
73.7
0.41%
241.66
0.1%
990.1
4
1.93%
51.87
2.35%
42.52
1.43%
69.7
0.58%
171.38
0.18%
561.8
0.04%
2304.15
5
0.66%
150.78
0.81%
123.59
0.49%
202.63
0.2%
498.26
0.06%
1633.99
0.01%
6711.41
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.01% · Fair: 99.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.47% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.57%
Draw 25.23%
Away Win 26.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.86%
No 42.14%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.55% 8.66 14.94% 6.69 73.51% 1.36
-1.5 26.49% 3.77 — 73.51% 1.36
-1.0 26.49% 3.77 22.62% 4.42 50.89% 1.97
-0.5 49.11% 2.04 — 50.89% 1.97
0 (PK) 49.11% 2.04 23.75% 4.21 27.14% 3.68
+0.5 72.86% 1.37 — 27.14% 3.68
+1.0 72.86% 1.37 16.04% 6.23 11.09% 9.01
+1.5 88.91% 1.12 — 11.09% 9.01
+2.0 88.91% 1.12 7.52% 13.3 3.58% 27.96

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.