Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.11%
Fair Odds 2.08
Draw
25.38%
Fair Odds 3.94
Away Win
26.51%
Fair Odds 3.77
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.19% Fair Odds 8.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.08 —
Draw 3.94 —
Away Win 3.77 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.19% 8.94
2 2-1 9.51% 10.52
3 1-0 9.17% 10.91
4 2-0 7.79% 12.83
5 1-2 6.82% 14.66
6 0-1 6.58% 15.2
7 2-2 5.8% 17.24
8 0-0 5.39% 18.54
9 3-1 5.39% 18.56
10 3-0 4.42% 22.64
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.39%
18.54
6.58%
15.2
4.01%
24.91
1.63%
61.26
0.5%
200.88
0.12%
823.05
1
9.17%
10.91
11.19%
8.94
6.82%
14.66
2.77%
36.04
0.85%
118.16
0.21%
484.26
2
7.79%
12.83
9.51%
10.52
5.8%
17.24
2.36%
42.4
0.72%
139.0
0.18%
569.8
3
4.42%
22.64
5.39%
18.56
3.29%
30.43
1.34%
74.82
0.41%
245.34
0.1%
1005.03
4
1.88%
53.28
2.29%
43.67
1.4%
71.59
0.57%
176.06
0.17%
577.03
0.04%
2364.07
5
0.64%
156.69
0.78%
128.45
0.47%
210.57
0.19%
517.87
0.06%
1697.79
0.01%
6944.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.96% · Fair: 104.01
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.39% 18.54
1 15.75% 6.35
2 22.99% 4.35
3 22.38% 4.47
4 16.34% 6.12
5+ 17.15% 5.83
Over 2.5 55.86% Under 2.5 44.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.11%
Draw 25.38%
Away Win 26.51%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.86%
Under 2.5 44.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.6%
No 42.4%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.25% 8.89 14.79% 6.76 73.96% 1.35
-1.5 26.04% 3.84 — 73.96% 1.35
-1.0 26.04% 3.84 22.59% 4.43 51.37% 1.95
-0.5 48.63% 2.06 — 51.37% 1.95
0 (PK) 48.63% 2.06 23.9% 4.18 27.46% 3.64
+0.5 72.54% 1.38 — 27.46% 3.64
+1.0 72.54% 1.38 16.21% 6.17 11.25% 8.89
+1.5 88.75% 1.13 — 11.25% 8.89
+2.0 88.75% 1.13 7.62% 13.13 3.63% 27.55

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.