Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.22%
Fair Odds 2.16
Draw
26.01%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
27.76%
Fair Odds 3.6
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.55% Fair Odds 8.66

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.16 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 3.6 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.55% 8.66
2 1-0 9.46% 10.57
3 2-1 9.35% 10.69
4 2-0 7.67% 13.04
5 0-1 7.13% 14.03
6 1-2 7.04% 14.2
7 0-0 5.84% 17.12
8 2-2 5.71% 17.53
9 3-1 5.05% 19.8
10 0-2 4.35% 23.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.84%
17.12
7.13%
14.03
4.35%
23.0
1.77%
56.55
0.54%
185.43
0.13%
759.88
1
9.46%
10.57
11.55%
8.66
7.04%
14.2
2.86%
34.91
0.87%
114.46
0.21%
469.04
2
7.67%
13.04
9.35%
10.69
5.71%
17.53
2.32%
43.1
0.71%
141.3
0.17%
579.04
3
4.14%
24.15
5.05%
19.8
3.08%
32.46
1.25%
79.81
0.38%
261.71
0.09%
1072.96
4
1.68%
59.64
2.05%
48.89
1.25%
80.14
0.51%
197.08
0.15%
645.99
0.04%
2645.5
5
0.54%
184.09
0.66%
150.88
0.4%
247.34
0.16%
608.27
0.05%
1996.01
0.01%
8196.72
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.8% · Fair: 124.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.84% 17.12
1 16.59% 6.03
2 23.56% 4.24
3 22.31% 4.48
4 15.84% 6.31
5+ 15.86% 6.31
Over 2.5 54.0% Under 2.5 46.0%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.22%
Draw 26.01%
Away Win 27.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.0%
Under 2.5 46.0%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.53%
No 43.47%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.09% 9.91 14.14% 7.07 75.76% 1.32
-1.5 24.24% 4.13 — 75.76% 1.32
-1.0 24.24% 4.13 22.46% 4.45 53.3% 1.88
-0.5 46.7% 2.14 — 53.3% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.7% 2.14 24.52% 4.08 28.79% 3.47
+0.5 71.21% 1.4 — 28.79% 3.47
+1.0 71.21% 1.4 16.91% 5.91 11.87% 8.42
+1.5 88.13% 1.13 — 11.87% 8.42
+2.0 88.13% 1.13 8.02% 12.47 3.85% 25.97

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.