Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.78%
Fair Odds 2.23
Draw
26.47%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
28.74%
Fair Odds 3.48
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.81% Fair Odds 8.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.23 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 3.48 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.81% 8.47
2 1-0 9.68% 10.33
3 2-1 9.21% 10.86
4 0-1 7.57% 13.21
5 2-0 7.55% 13.25
6 1-2 7.2% 13.88
7 0-0 6.2% 16.12
8 2-2 5.62% 17.8
9 3-1 4.79% 20.88
10 0-2 4.62% 21.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2%
16.12
7.57%
13.21
4.62%
21.66
1.88%
53.26
0.57%
174.61
0.14%
715.82
1
9.68%
10.33
11.81%
8.47
7.2%
13.88
2.93%
34.14
0.89%
111.94
0.22%
458.72
2
7.55%
13.25
9.21%
10.86
5.62%
17.8
2.28%
43.77
0.7%
143.51
0.17%
588.24
3
3.93%
25.48
4.79%
20.88
2.92%
34.23
1.19%
84.18
0.36%
276.01
0.09%
1131.22
4
1.53%
65.32
1.87%
53.54
1.14%
87.77
0.46%
215.84
0.14%
707.71
0.03%
2898.55
5
0.48%
209.38
0.58%
171.61
0.36%
281.29
0.14%
691.56
0.04%
2267.57
0.01%
9259.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.7% · Fair: 143.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.20% 16.12
1 17.25% 5.80
2 23.97% 4.17
3 22.21% 4.50
4 15.44% 6.48
5+ 14.92% 6.70
Over 2.5 52.58% Under 2.5 47.42%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.78%
Draw 26.47%
Away Win 28.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.58%
Under 2.5 47.42%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.67%
No 44.33%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.26% 10.8 13.63% 7.33 77.11% 1.3
-1.5 22.89% 4.37 — 77.11% 1.3
-1.0 22.89% 4.37 22.32% 4.48 54.79% 1.83
-0.5 45.21% 2.21 — 54.79% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.21% 2.21 24.97% 4.0 29.82% 3.35
+0.5 70.18% 1.42 — 29.82% 3.35
+1.0 70.18% 1.42 17.45% 5.73 12.36% 8.09
+1.5 87.64% 1.14 — 12.36% 8.09
+2.0 87.64% 1.14 8.34% 11.99 4.02% 24.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.