Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.32%
Fair Odds 2.48
Draw
27.82%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
31.85%
Fair Odds 3.14
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.5% Fair Odds 8.0

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.48 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 3.14 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.5% 8.0
2 1-0 10.25% 9.76
3 0-1 9.06% 11.04
4 2-1 8.63% 11.59
5 1-2 7.63% 13.11
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 2-0 7.07% 14.14
8 0-2 5.53% 18.09
9 2-2 5.26% 19.0
10 3-1 3.97% 25.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.06%
11.04
5.53%
18.09
2.25%
44.49
0.69%
145.86
0.17%
597.73
1
10.25%
9.76
12.5%
8.0
7.63%
13.11
3.1%
32.24
0.95%
105.7
0.23%
433.09
2
7.07%
14.14
8.63%
11.59
5.26%
19.0
2.14%
46.72
0.65%
153.19
0.16%
627.75
3
3.25%
30.74
3.97%
25.2
2.42%
41.3
0.98%
101.56
0.3%
333.0
0.07%
1364.26
4
1.12%
89.09
1.37%
73.03
0.84%
119.72
0.34%
294.38
0.1%
965.25
0.03%
3952.57
5
0.31%
322.79
0.38%
264.62
0.23%
433.84
0.09%
1066.1
0.03%
3496.5
0.01%
14285.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 217.06
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.32%
Draw 27.82%
Away Win 31.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.75%
No 47.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.95% 14.38 11.98% 8.35 81.07% 1.23
-1.5 18.93% 5.28 — 81.07% 1.23
-1.0 18.93% 5.28 21.67% 4.61 59.4% 1.68
-0.5 40.6% 2.46 — 59.4% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.6% 2.46 26.29% 3.8 33.11% 3.02
+0.5 66.89% 1.49 — 33.11% 3.02
+1.0 66.89% 1.49 19.16% 5.22 13.95% 7.17
+1.5 86.05% 1.16 — 13.95% 7.17
+2.0 86.05% 1.16 9.36% 10.68 4.59% 21.77

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.