Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.23%
Fair Odds 2.69
Draw
28.67%
Fair Odds 3.49
Away Win
34.09%
Fair Odds 2.93
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.87% Fair Odds 7.77

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.69 —
Draw 3.49 —
Away Win 2.93 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.87% 7.77
2 1-0 10.55% 9.48
3 0-1 10.22% 9.79
4 0-0 8.37% 11.94
5 2-1 8.11% 12.33
6 1-2 7.85% 12.73
7 2-0 6.65% 15.04
8 0-2 6.23% 16.05
9 2-2 4.95% 20.21
10 3-1 3.41% 29.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.37%
11.94
10.22%
9.79
6.23%
16.05
2.53%
39.46
0.77%
129.37
0.19%
530.22
1
10.55%
9.48
12.87%
7.77
7.85%
12.73
3.19%
31.31
0.97%
102.67
0.24%
420.7
2
6.65%
15.04
8.11%
12.33
4.95%
20.21
2.01%
49.71
0.61%
162.97
0.15%
668.0
3
2.79%
35.82
3.41%
29.36
2.08%
48.13
0.84%
118.34
0.26%
388.05
0.06%
1589.83
4
0.88%
113.7
1.07%
93.2
0.65%
152.79
0.27%
375.66
0.08%
1231.53
0.02%
5050.51
5
0.22%
451.26
0.27%
369.82
0.16%
606.43
0.07%
1490.31
0.02%
4878.05
0.01%
20000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.35% · Fair: 282.81
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.37% 11.94
1 20.77% 4.82
2 25.75% 3.88
3 21.29% 4.70
4 13.20% 7.58
5+ 10.62% 9.42
Over 2.5 45.1% Under 2.5 54.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.23%
Draw 28.67%
Away Win 34.09%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.49%
No 49.51%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.59% 17.9 10.78% 9.28 83.63% 1.2
-1.5 16.37% 6.11 — 83.63% 1.2
-1.0 16.37% 6.11 21.03% 4.76 62.61% 1.6
-0.5 37.39% 2.67 — 62.61% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.39% 2.67 27.13% 3.69 35.48% 2.82
+0.5 64.52% 1.55 — 35.48% 2.82
+1.0 64.52% 1.55 20.36% 4.91 15.12% 6.61
+1.5 84.88% 1.18 — 15.12% 6.61
+2.0 84.88% 1.18 10.11% 9.89 5.01% 19.94

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.