Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.07%
Fair Odds 2.94
Draw
29.14%
Fair Odds 3.43
Away Win
36.79%
Fair Odds 2.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.04% Fair Odds 7.67

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.94 —
Draw 3.43 —
Away Win 2.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.04% 7.67
2 0-1 10.96% 9.13
3 1-0 10.69% 9.36
4 0-0 8.98% 11.13
5 1-2 7.95% 12.57
6 2-1 7.76% 12.89
7 0-2 6.68% 14.96
8 2-0 6.36% 15.72
9 2-2 4.73% 21.13
10 1-3 3.23% 30.92
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.98%
11.13
10.96%
9.13
6.68%
14.96
2.72%
36.79
0.83%
120.63
0.2%
494.32
1
10.69%
9.36
13.04%
7.67
7.95%
12.57
3.23%
30.92
0.99%
101.36
0.24%
415.45
2
6.36%
15.72
7.76%
12.89
4.73%
21.13
1.92%
51.96
0.59%
170.36
0.14%
698.32
3
2.52%
39.64
3.08%
32.49
1.88%
53.27
0.76%
130.99
0.23%
429.55
0.06%
1760.56
4
0.75%
133.24
0.92%
109.22
0.56%
179.05
0.23%
440.33
0.07%
1443.0
0.02%
5917.16
5
0.18%
559.91
0.22%
458.93
0.13%
752.45
0.05%
1848.43
0.02%
6060.61
0.0%
25000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.31% · Fair: 326.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.98% 11.13
1 21.65% 4.62
2 26.08% 3.83
3 20.95% 4.77
4 12.62% 7.92
5+ 9.71% 10.30
Over 2.5 43.29% Under 2.5 56.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.07%
Draw 29.14%
Away Win 36.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.29%
Under 2.5 56.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.04%
No 50.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.86% 20.59 10.05% 9.95 85.09% 1.18
-1.5 14.91% 6.71 — 85.09% 1.18
-1.0 14.91% 6.71 20.57% 4.86 64.52% 1.55
-0.5 35.48% 2.82 — 64.52% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.48% 2.82 27.59% 3.62 36.93% 2.71
+0.5 63.07% 1.59 — 36.93% 2.71
+1.0 63.07% 1.59 21.09% 4.74 15.84% 6.31
+1.5 84.16% 1.19 — 15.84% 6.31
+2.0 84.16% 1.19 10.57% 9.46 5.28% 18.95

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.