Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.45%
Fair Odds 3.08
Draw
29.53%
Fair Odds 3.39
Away Win
38.02%
Fair Odds 2.63
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.15% Fair Odds 7.61

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.08 —
Draw 3.39 —
Away Win 2.63 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.15% 7.61
2 0-1 11.63% 8.59
3 1-0 10.78% 9.28
4 0-0 9.54% 10.49
5 1-2 8.02% 12.47
6 2-1 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 7.1% 14.09
8 2-0 6.09% 16.42
9 2-2 4.53% 22.07
10 1-3 3.26% 30.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.54%
10.49
11.63%
8.59
7.1%
14.09
2.89%
34.65
0.88%
113.6
0.21%
465.55
1
10.78%
9.28
13.15%
7.61
8.02%
12.47
3.26%
30.66
0.99%
100.52
0.24%
412.03
2
6.09%
16.42
7.43%
13.46
4.53%
22.07
1.84%
54.27
0.56%
177.94
0.14%
729.39
3
2.29%
43.6
2.8%
35.74
1.71%
58.59
0.69%
144.07
0.21%
472.37
0.05%
1934.24
4
0.65%
154.34
0.79%
126.52
0.48%
207.38
0.2%
509.94
0.06%
1672.24
0.01%
6849.32
5
0.15%
683.06
0.18%
559.91
0.11%
917.43
0.04%
2257.34
0.01%
7407.41
0.0%
30303.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.27% · Fair: 365.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.54% 10.49
1 22.41% 4.46
2 26.33% 3.80
3 20.63% 4.85
4 12.12% 8.25
5+ 8.97% 11.15
Over 2.5 41.72% Under 2.5 58.28%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.45%
Draw 29.53%
Away Win 38.02%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.72%
Under 2.5 58.28%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.71%
No 52.29%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.27% 23.4 9.42% 10.62 86.31% 1.16
-1.5 13.69% 7.3 — 86.31% 1.16
-1.0 13.69% 7.3 20.12% 4.97 66.19% 1.51
-0.5 33.81% 2.96 — 66.19% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.81% 2.96 27.97% 3.57 38.22% 2.62
+0.5 61.78% 1.62 — 38.22% 2.62
+1.0 61.78% 1.62 21.72% 4.6 16.49% 6.06
+1.5 83.51% 1.2 — 16.49% 6.06
+2.0 83.51% 1.2 10.98% 9.11 5.51% 18.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.