Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.91%
Fair Odds 3.13
Draw
29.66%
Fair Odds 3.37
Away Win
38.44%
Fair Odds 2.6
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.18% Fair Odds 7.59

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.13 —
Draw 3.37 —
Away Win 2.6 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.18% 7.59
2 0-1 11.87% 8.42
3 1-0 10.8% 9.26
4 0-0 9.73% 10.28
5 1-2 8.04% 12.44
6 2-1 7.31% 13.68
7 0-2 7.24% 13.81
8 2-0 5.99% 16.68
9 2-2 4.46% 22.42
10 1-3 3.27% 30.6
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.73%
10.28
11.87%
8.42
7.24%
13.81
2.94%
33.96
0.9%
111.35
0.22%
456.41
1
10.8%
9.26
13.18%
7.59
8.04%
12.44
3.27%
30.6
1.0%
100.31
0.24%
411.18
2
5.99%
16.68
7.31%
13.68
4.46%
22.42
1.81%
55.13
0.55%
180.73
0.14%
740.74
3
2.22%
45.09
2.71%
36.96
1.65%
60.59
0.67%
148.99
0.2%
488.52
0.05%
2004.01
4
0.62%
162.5
0.75%
133.19
0.46%
218.34
0.19%
536.77
0.06%
1760.56
0.01%
7194.24
5
0.14%
732.06
0.17%
599.88
0.1%
983.28
0.04%
2421.31
0.01%
7936.51
0.0%
32258.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 378.64
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.73% 10.28
1 22.67% 4.41
2 26.41% 3.79
3 20.51% 4.88
4 11.95% 8.37
5+ 8.73% 11.46
Over 2.5 41.19% Under 2.5 58.81%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.91%
Draw 29.66%
Away Win 38.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.19%
Under 2.5 58.81%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.25%
No 52.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.09% 24.47 9.2% 10.87 86.71% 1.15
-1.5 13.29% 7.53 — 86.71% 1.15
-1.0 13.29% 7.53 19.96% 5.01 66.75% 1.5
-0.5 33.25% 3.01 — 66.75% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.25% 3.01 28.1% 3.56 38.65% 2.59
+0.5 61.35% 1.63 — 38.65% 2.59
+1.0 61.35% 1.63 21.94% 4.56 16.71% 5.98
+1.5 83.29% 1.2 — 16.71% 5.98
+2.0 83.29% 1.2 11.12% 9.0 5.6% 17.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.