Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.56%
Fair Odds 2.06
Draw
25.32%
Fair Odds 3.95
Away Win
26.13%
Fair Odds 3.83
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.16% Fair Odds 8.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.06 —
Draw 3.95 —
Away Win 3.83 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.16% 8.96
2 2-1 9.54% 10.48
3 1-0 9.22% 10.84
4 2-0 7.89% 12.68
5 1-2 6.75% 14.81
6 0-1 6.53% 15.32
7 2-2 5.77% 17.32
8 3-1 5.44% 18.39
9 0-0 5.39% 18.54
10 3-0 4.49% 22.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.39%
18.54
6.53%
15.32
3.95%
25.33
1.59%
62.79
0.48%
207.6
0.12%
857.63
1
9.22%
10.84
11.16%
8.96
6.75%
14.81
2.72%
36.72
0.82%
121.4
0.2%
501.76
2
7.89%
12.68
9.54%
10.48
5.77%
17.32
2.33%
42.95
0.7%
141.98
0.17%
586.85
3
4.49%
22.25
5.44%
18.39
3.29%
30.39
1.33%
75.35
0.4%
249.13
0.1%
1028.81
4
1.92%
52.04
2.33%
43.01
1.41%
71.09
0.57%
176.27
0.17%
582.75
0.04%
2409.64
5
0.66%
152.18
0.8%
125.77
0.48%
207.86
0.19%
515.46
0.06%
1703.58
0.01%
7042.25
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.98% · Fair: 102.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.39% 18.54
1 15.75% 6.35
2 22.99% 4.35
3 22.38% 4.47
4 16.34% 6.12
5+ 17.15% 5.83
Over 2.5 55.86% Under 2.5 44.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.56%
Draw 25.32%
Away Win 26.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.86%
Under 2.5 44.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.49%
No 42.51%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.47% 8.72 14.94% 6.69 73.58% 1.36
-1.5 26.42% 3.79 — 73.58% 1.36
-1.0 26.42% 3.79 22.68% 4.41 50.9% 1.96
-0.5 49.1% 2.04 — 50.9% 1.96
0 (PK) 49.1% 2.04 23.84% 4.19 27.06% 3.7
+0.5 72.94% 1.37 — 27.06% 3.7
+1.0 72.94% 1.37 16.05% 6.23 11.01% 9.08
+1.5 88.99% 1.12 — 11.01% 9.08
+2.0 88.99% 1.12 7.48% 13.37 3.53% 28.35

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.