Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.0%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
26.5%
Fair Odds 3.77
Away Win
28.5%
Fair Odds 3.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.83% Fair Odds 8.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 3.77 —
Away Win 3.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.83% 8.45
2 1-0 9.78% 10.23
3 2-1 9.23% 10.84
4 2-0 7.62% 13.12
5 0-1 7.58% 13.19
6 1-2 7.16% 13.97
7 0-0 6.27% 15.96
8 2-2 5.58% 17.92
9 3-1 4.8% 20.84
10 0-2 4.59% 21.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.27%
15.96
7.58%
13.19
4.59%
21.8
1.85%
54.05
0.56%
178.67
0.14%
738.55
1
9.78%
10.23
11.83%
8.45
7.16%
13.97
2.89%
34.65
0.87%
114.53
0.21%
473.26
2
7.62%
13.12
9.23%
10.84
5.58%
17.92
2.25%
44.42
0.68%
146.84
0.16%
606.8
3
3.96%
25.22
4.8%
20.84
2.9%
34.45
1.17%
85.42
0.35%
282.41
0.09%
1166.86
4
1.55%
64.67
1.87%
53.45
1.13%
88.34
0.46%
219.01
0.14%
724.11
0.03%
2994.01
5
0.48%
207.3
0.58%
171.29
0.35%
283.13
0.14%
702.25
0.04%
2320.19
0.01%
9615.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.69% · Fair: 144.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.27% 15.96
1 17.36% 5.76
2 24.04% 4.16
3 22.20% 4.51
4 15.37% 6.51
5+ 14.77% 6.77
Over 2.5 52.34% Under 2.5 47.66%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.00%
Draw 26.50%
Away Win 28.50%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.34%
Under 2.5 47.66%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.43%
No 44.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.32% 10.73 13.71% 7.29 76.97% 1.3
-1.5 23.03% 4.34 — 76.97% 1.3
-1.0 23.03% 4.34 22.41% 4.46 54.56% 1.83
-0.5 45.44% 2.2 — 54.56% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.44% 2.2 25.0% 4.0 29.57% 3.38
+0.5 70.43% 1.42 — 29.57% 3.38
+1.0 70.43% 1.42 17.38% 5.75 12.19% 8.2
+1.5 87.81% 1.14 — 12.19% 8.2
+2.0 87.81% 1.14 8.25% 12.13 3.94% 25.38

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.