Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.51%
Fair Odds 2.25
Draw
26.66%
Fair Odds 3.75
Away Win
28.83%
Fair Odds 3.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.91% Fair Odds 8.39

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.25 —
Draw 3.75 —
Away Win 3.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.91% 8.39
2 1-0 9.84% 10.16
3 2-1 9.17% 10.9
4 0-1 7.74% 12.93
5 2-0 7.58% 13.19
6 1-2 7.21% 13.88
7 0-0 6.39% 15.64
8 2-2 5.55% 18.02
9 3-1 4.71% 21.24
10 0-2 4.68% 21.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
7.74%
12.93
4.68%
21.37
1.89%
52.98
0.57%
175.13
0.14%
723.59
1
9.84%
10.16
11.91%
8.39
7.21%
13.88
2.91%
34.4
0.88%
113.73
0.21%
469.92
2
7.58%
13.19
9.17%
10.9
5.55%
18.02
2.24%
44.68
0.68%
147.69
0.16%
610.13
3
3.89%
25.7
4.71%
21.24
2.85%
35.1
1.15%
87.03
0.35%
287.69
0.08%
1189.06
4
1.5%
66.75
1.81%
55.16
1.1%
91.18
0.44%
226.04
0.13%
747.38
0.03%
3086.42
5
0.46%
216.73
0.56%
179.12
0.34%
296.03
0.14%
734.21
0.04%
2427.18
0.01%
10000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.66% · Fair: 151.49
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.51%
Draw 26.66%
Away Win 28.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.13%
No 44.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.05% 11.05 13.53% 7.39 77.42% 1.29
-1.5 22.58% 4.43 — 77.42% 1.29
-1.0 22.58% 4.43 22.35% 4.47 55.06% 1.82
-0.5 44.94% 2.23 — 55.06% 1.82
0 (PK) 44.94% 2.23 25.15% 3.98 29.92% 3.34
+0.5 70.08% 1.43 — 29.92% 3.34
+1.0 70.08% 1.43 17.56% 5.69 12.35% 8.09
+1.5 87.65% 1.14 — 12.35% 8.09
+2.0 87.65% 1.14 8.35% 11.97 4.0% 25.0

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.